超越收缩的增长--全要素生产率视角的城市收缩辨析  

Growth Beyond Shrinkage:A Study on Urban Shrinkage Phenomenon in Shenyang from the Perspective of TFP

作　　者：杨帆[1] 王佳音 陶沛宏 YANG Fan;WANG Jiayin;TAO Peihong

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院城市规划系,上海200092

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2022年第2期106-115,共10页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51778436)。

摘　　要：在人口红利、人口结构发生巨大变化的中国当下,讨论城市“收缩”现象对提出发展建议具有重大意义。研究选择传统工业基地城市沈阳市市辖区作为研究对象,根据公开渠道获取的多种类型数据,基于全要素生产率(TFP)和计量经济学方法考察城市“收缩”现象。首先,研究采用Solow残差法测算沈阳市辖各区的TFP,并以TFP的变化趋势作为判定增长或“收缩”的依据。其次,采用计量经济学方法构建面板数据回归模型,分析得出产业结构、各类企业进出率、人口规模、国企占比等变量是影响“收缩”的重要因素。进而,分析刻画出沈阳市辖区街道层面增长和“收缩”的时空演变特征。研究发现,以人口流失为表征的城市“收缩”现象具有阶段性和局部性特征,是城市或地区TFP调适和优化的过程。因此,城市更应关注和监测TFP的变化趋势并相应做出战略性举措。In contemporary China,where the demographic dividend and demographic structure have changed dramatically,it is of great significance to discuss urban shrinkage to put forward constructive suggestions on development strategies.In this study,the municipal area of the traditional industrial base city Shenyang is selected as the research object.Based on various types of data obtained through public channels,this study examines the phenomenon of urban"shrinkage"through total factor productivity(TFP)and econometric methods.Firstly,this study calculates the TFP of all districts under the jurisdiction of Shenyang municipal by using the Solow residual method and takes the changing trend of TFP as the basis for determining the growth or"shrinkage".Secondly,the econometrics method is used to construct a panel data regression models,which finds that industrial structure,entry and exit rate of various enterprises,population scale and proportion of state-owned enterprises are important factors affecting the"shrinkage".Then,it analyses the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of growth and"shrinkage".It concludes that population loss,as a"shrinkage"representation,follows the process of urban or regional TFP optimization,with periodic fluctuations and self-tuning in the long-term development progress.Therefore,staged and partial"shrinkage"are the necessary strategic optimization and reserve for longterm growth under the joint action of multiple factors,and more attention should be pay on monitoring the changing trends of TFP and making strategic measures accordingly.

关 键 词：收缩城市 城市效率 全要素生产率 计量经济学方法 传统工业基地城市 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]