中国边境口岸地区传染病境外输入风险评估——以新冠肺炎疫情为例  

Cross-border infections in border port areas of China:Take COVID-19 as an example

作　　者：程艺[1,2] 刘慧 张芳芳[1,2] CHENG Yi;LIU Hui;ZHANG Fangfang(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2022年第3期851-866,共16页Geographical Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010103);中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131551K YSB20160002);中国科协创新青年百人计划(20200608CG072501)。

摘　　要：传染病影响人类福祉和可持续发展,边境口岸地区是传染病境外输入防控中的薄弱区域。然而,目前关于边境地区传染病境外输入风险和防控的研究大部分停留在指标体系构建或定性分析的层面。现有研究中缺乏从地理学视角分析边境口岸传染病的时空演化,对传染病风险的定量测度与情景模拟有待加强,对中国边境口岸的疫情防控工作缺乏精准指导。本文构建了一般意义上的边境口岸地区传染病境外输入风险指数(ERI),评估了一般年份中国陆地边境口岸地区传染病境外输入风险,并以2020年新冠肺炎疫情为例,对中国陆地边境口岸不同管控措施情境进行风险分析,识别了疫情境外输入的高风险口岸。结果表明:①一般年份中约1/5的中国陆地边境口岸风险较高,包括瑞丽、二连浩特、满洲里、东兴等,其中中缅边境地区最为集中。②2020年中国边境口岸地区新冠肺炎疫情境外输入呈现空间极化特征,集中发生在满洲里、绥芬河、瑞丽三个口岸地区。③中俄、中哈边境口岸地区是新冠肺炎疫情境外输入的较高风险区域,霍尔果斯、满洲里、阿拉山口、绥芬河、珲春5个口岸仍存在新冠肺炎疫情境外输入的较高风险。增强边境口岸管控措施对降低新冠肺炎疫情境外输入风险效果显著,后疫情时代需积极转变边境对外贸易方式,协调边境发展与疫情管控之间的关系。本文提出的传染病跨境传播风险评估方法,不仅为当前新冠肺炎疫情的常态化防控提供决策参考,更为今后各类传染病境外输入的定量评估和分级分类管控提供科学支撑。Epidemic affects human well-being and sustainable development.Border port area is a weak area in the prevention and control of epidemic imported from abroad.However,most of the current research on the risk of imported epidemic in border areas and prevention and control focuses on index system construction or qualitative analysis.Existing research lacks the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of epidemic in border ports from the perspective of geography,and the quantitative measurement and scenario simulation of epidemic risk need to be strengthened.Based on this,Epidemic Risk Index(ERI)of cross-border imported was established in the general sense of border port area,and epidemic risk of cross-border imported cases in China’s border port areas in general year was evaluated.Taking COVID-19 in 2020 as an example,the risk analysis of different control measures in China’s border port areas was conducted,and the high-risk ports for cross-border COVID-19 imported were identified.The results show that:(1)About one fifth of China’s border ports were at rather high-risk in general year,including Ruili,Erlianhot,Manzhouli,and Dongxing,among which the China-Myanmar border port areas were the most concentrated.(2)Cross-border COVID-19 imported in China’s border port area showed spatial polarization characteristics in 2020,concentrated in the three port areas of Manzhouli,Suifenhe and Ruili.(3)The port areas in China-Russia and China-Kazakhstan border area have rather high-risk of cross-border COVID-19 imported,especially in five ports of Huoerguosi,Manzhouli,Alashankou,Suifenhe and Hunchun.Strengthening the control in border port areas is effective in decreasing the risk of COVID-19.In the postepidemic era,it is necessary to actively change the mode of border trade,and to coordinate the relationship between border development and epidemic control.This paper came up with the risk assessment method of cross-border epidemic transmission,and provided reference for decision-making on the current prevention and c

关 键 词：边境口岸 新冠肺炎疫情 风险评估 传染病防控 中国 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]