央行沟通、货币政策工具定向调控效应与企业投资行为  

Central Bank Communication,Targeted Regulation Effect of Monetary Policy Tools and Enterprise Investment Behavior

作　　者：马福春 钟献兵[1] Ma Fuchun;Zhong Xianbing(Yuxi Center Sub-branch,People’s Bank of China,Yuxi 650300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行玉溪市中心支行,云南玉溪650300

出　　处：《金融理论探索》2022年第2期66-80,共15页Exploration of Financial Theory

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“云南生态环境信用信息制度建设研究”(YB2020059)。

摘　　要：新常态下做好预期管理,优化货币政策工具组合,有效发挥结构性货币政策工具的精准滴灌成为货币当局重点关注的问题。本文基于2007—2019年我国上市企业季度面板数据,采用PVAR模型分析了多种货币政策工具组合操作对企业投资水平的定向调节作用和特质调节效应。研究发现:央行沟通与货币政策行动呈宽松变动对企业的投资水平起到刺激作用,且货币政策行动指数刺激效应强于央行沟通指数。并且不同货币政策工具组合操作对企业投资水平的定向调节作用和特质调节效应具有显著差异。具体而言,一年期存款、中长期贷款、支农再贷款对农牧渔林业的特质调节效应较好;M1、一年期存款、中长期贷款、再贴现、MLF对制造业企业的特质调节效应显著;准备金率的调整以及PSL对房地产企业特质调节效应显著;M0、中期借贷便利、抵押补充贷款、支小再贷款对信息科技企业的特质调节效应相对较好;对民营企业的特质调节效应相对较好的是MLF、PSL,对小型企业投资具有较好的特质调节效应的是M1、MLF、支小再贷款。因此,货币当局要强化言辞沟通,加强预期管理,拓宽货币政策对实体的投资效应,要基于货币政策工具对特征企业组合效应和特质效应的差异而对货币政策工具进行选择性操作,强化货币政策的定向调节效应。Under the new normal,doing a good job in anticipation management,optimizing the combination of monetary policy tools,and effectively using structural monetary policy tools to accurately drip irrigation have become the key concerns ofmonetary authorities.Based on the quarterly panel data of listed companies in China from 2007 to 2019,this paper uses the PVAR model to analyze the directional adjustment effect and characteristic adjustment effect of the combination of multiple monetary policy tools on the investment level of enterprises.The study found that the loose changes in central bank communication and monetary policy actions stimulated the investment level of enterprises,and the stimulus effect of the monetary policy action index was stronger than that of the central bank communication index.In addition,there are significant differences in the directional adjustment effect and characteristic adjustment effect of the combination of different monetary policy tools on the investment level of enterprises.Specifically,one-year deposits,medium-and long-term loans,and re-lending to support agriculture have a better regulatory effect on the characteristics of agriculture,animal husbandry,fishery and forestry;The adjustment effect of M1,one-year deposits,medium-and long-term loans,rediscounting,and MLF’s characteristics for manufacturing companies is significant;The adjustment of the reserve ratio and the PSL have a significant adjustment effect on the characteristics of real estate enterprises;M0,medium-term borrowing facilities,mortgage supplementary loans,and small refinancing have relatively good adjustment effects on the characteristics of information technology enterprises;characteristics of private enterprises MLF and PSL have relatively better adjustment effects,and M1,MLF,and small-scale refinancing have better characteristics adjustment effects on small business investment.Therefore,the monetary authority must strengthen verbal communication,strengthen management of expectations,and broaden the investment

关 键 词：央行沟通 货币政策工具 企业投资 定向调控 

分 类 号：F821.0[经济管理—财政学]