风电中长期电量预测研究现状  

Research Status of Mid-long Term Wind Power Generation Forecasting

作　　者：蒋建东[1] 孙书凯 董存 王勃 王铮 JIANG Jiandong;SUN Shukai;DONG Cun;WANG Bo;WANG Zheng(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy&Storage Systems,China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;National Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学电气工程学院,郑州450001 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室,北京100192 [3]国家电力调度控制中心,北京100031

出　　处：《高电压技术》2022年第2期409-419,共11页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB0904201);国家电网公司科技项目(SGLNDKOOKJJS1800266)。

摘　　要：在高比例新能源场景下,大规模风电并网给电力系统供电充裕度、供需平衡等产生了更加显著影响,因此风电的电量预测在业内受到了更多的关注。准确的风电中长期电量预测结果可以为风电并网后电网制订电源调配计划、设备检修计划及中长期发电计划等提供重要依据。论文从基本理论、主要方法、难点及趋势等方面对目前的风电中长期电量预测研究现状展开了综述。在明确电量预测基本概念、分类及适用问题的基础上,对中长期电量预测方法进行了分类总结,针对基于历史电量数据的预测方法、基于历史资源再分析数据的预测方法、考虑未来资源预报数据的预测方法以及多种数据的组合预测方法分别进行了分析。最后,梳理了目前中长期电量预测技术发展的主要难题,展望了未来的可能突破方向。In the scenario of high proportion of new energy,large-scale wind power integration has a more significant impact on the power supply adequacy and supply-demand balance of the power system.Therefore,the power forecasting of wind power has received more attention and research in industry.The accurate mid-long term wind power generation forecasting results can provide an important basis for the grid to formulate the power allocation plan,equipment maintenance plan and mid-long term generation plan after the wind power grid is connected.This paper reviews the current research status of mid-long term wind power generation forecasting from the basic theory,main methods,difficulties and trends.On the basis of clarifying the basic concept,classification and application of electricity forecasting,this paper classifies and summarizes the mid-long term electricity forecasting methods,and analyzes the prediction methods based on historical electricity data,prediction methods based on historical resource reanalysis data,prediction methods considering future resource forecasting data,and combination forecasting method of multi-data.Finally,the main difficulties in the development of mid-long term electricity forecasting technology are summarized,and the possible breakthrough direction in the future is prospected.

关 键 词：中长期电量预测 风电并网 资源再分析 资源气候态预报 高比例新能源 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]