如何应对全球共同面临的人口难题——高龄少子化  

How to Deal with the Population Challenges Facing the World——Aging Population With Too Few Children

作　　者：郑京平 Zheng Jingping

机构地区：[1]中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会

出　　处：《全球化》2022年第2期24-31,133,共9页Globalization

摘　　要：本文对全球共同面临的人口难题——高龄少子化进行了研究。根据发达国家的经历,人口高龄少子化很可能会在全球成为趋势,其中高龄化肯定会成为趋势,少子化则可能存在一些变数。高龄少子化社会的本质问题是“食之者日众,生之者日寡”,即食之者会日益增多,而创造财富者则会相对日益减少。解决思路是,一方面,要在现有人口结构条件下,尽可能增加“生”的能力(即产出能力)、减少“食”的水平(即消耗水平);另一方面,要积极创造保证人口可替代的生育条件及生育结果,阻止少子化趋势发展,使生育水平回归到正常状态。This paper studies the population problem that the world is facing-Aging Population With Too Few Children.According to the experience of developed countries,the aging of the population is likely to become a global trend,among which the aging will definitely become a trend,and there may be some variables in the low birthrate.The essential problem of an aging society with a low birthrate is that“the number of those who eat is increasing,and the number of those who are born is decreasing”,there will be more people who are ready to eat,while the number of people who create wealth will be relatively decreasing.The solution is to,on the one hand,increase the ability to“produce”(ie,output capacity)and reduce the level of“food”(ie,consumption level)as much as possible under the existing population structure;on the other hand,it is necessary to actively create substitutable fertility conditions and fertility outcomes for the population,prevent the development of the low birthrate trend,and return the fertility level to a normal state.

关 键 词：少子化 高龄化 现有人口 解决思路 消耗水平 生育条件 生育水平 创造财富 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]