基于Lotka-Volterra模型的高铁与航空快递运输竞合关系研究  

Research on Coopetition Relationships between High Speed Rail and Air Express Transportation Based on Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：雷渝 帅斌[1,2,3,4] LEI Yu;SHUAI Bin(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Application Technology of Integrated Transportation Big Data,Southwest Jiaotong University.Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China;National United Engineering Laboratory oflntegrated and Intelligent Transportation.Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都611756 [3]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756 [4]西南交通大学系统科学与系统工程研究所,四川成都611756

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2022年第3期73-78,91,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173177);国家铁路局科技研究计划项目(TYF201929);四川省科技厅国际科技创新合作项目(2021YFH0106)。

摘　　要：针对快递运输市场中高铁与航空的竞合问题,构建高铁与航空快递运输竞合Lotka-Volterra模型,以京沪OD为例分析两者竞合关系、发展趋势以及演化趋势,为高铁与航空快递运输发展策略研究提供参考。结果表明:2014—2022年高铁快递与航空快递年均增长率分别为0.263 41,0.241 90,均呈增速发展;高铁发展现状对高铁快递发展的影响系数为-0.000 99,表现为促进作用,航空发展现状对航空快递发展的影响系数为0.001 74,表现为抑制作用;高铁与航空快递运输竞合关系呈现偏利共生关系,具体表现为航空快递对高铁快递发展存在一定抑制作用,高铁快递在一定程度上促进航空快递发展,最终将达到一种双方共存且相对稳定的动态平衡。For the coopetition relationships between high speed rail and aviation in the express transportation market, we constructed a Lotka-Volterra model of the coopetition relationships between high speed rail and air express transportation.The Beijing-Shanghai origin-destination(OD) was taken as an example to analyze their coopetition relationships,development trends, and evolution trends and ultimately to provide a reference for the research on development strategies for high speed rail and air express transportation. The results show that the growth rates of high speed rail and air express during 2014–2022 are 0.263 41 and 0.241 90, respectively, and both of them have been developing at a rising speed. The influence coefficient of high speed rail development status on the development of high speed rail express is-0.000 99,which means the influence is positive. In contrast, that of aviation development status on the development of air express is 0.001 74, indicating a negative influence. The coopetition relationship between high speed rail and air express transportation proves to be a commensalistic one. This relationship is embodied in the way that air express has a negative effect on the development of high speed rail express, which in turn has a positive influence on the development of air express, and they will eventually achieve a dynamic balance of coexistence and relative stability.

关 键 词：综合运输 竞合关系 LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 高铁快递 航空快递 

分 类 号：F532.6[经济管理—产业经济] F562.6