脱实向虚视角下房地产价格的创新抑制效应研究  

Research of Inhibition Effect of Real Estate Prices on Innovation——Based on the Aspects of Transfer of Capital from the Virtual to the Real

作　　者：范新英[1] 王廷欢 张所地[3] FAN Xin-ying;WANG Ting-huan;ZHANG Suo-di(School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;College of Science,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006 [2]中央民族大学理学院,北京100081 [3]山西财经大学管理与科学工程学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2022年第2期239-253,共15页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(16BGL207);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(15YJC630187)。

摘　　要：创新是我国经济高质量发展的动力源泉,过高的房价是否会对创新造成冲击引起了广泛关注。在剖析了商品房价格对创新产出影响的传导机制基础上,构建TVP-VAR模型对房价影响创新产出的动态机理进行系统研究,分析房价对创新产出影响的时变特征。结果表明:房价上涨对我国经济“脱实向虚”现象有一定助推作用,且商品房价格、创新产出、房地产投瓷、制造业投资之间的联动变化关系是动态的,影响方向和力度会随时间而改变。基于四者之间互动关系以及房价波动对我国创新产出的影响,提出调控房地产市场平稳健康运行、促进创新创业等方面的相关政策建议。Innovation is the main sources for the high-quality's development under the strategy of the economy driven by innovation.It causes wide public concern if the high real estate prices impact the innovation.This paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of real estate prices on innovation output.Then it studies the dynamic,time-varying characteristics of the influence of real estate prices on innovation output based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that high real estate prices have a certain role on the phenomenon of "transfer of capital from the virtual to the real".The real estate prices,innovation outputs,real estate investment,manufacturing have a dynamic linkage relation,but the direction and strength,would be changed over time.Based on the interactive relationship between them some related policy suggestions are put forward concluding regulating the real estate market to stable healthy operation,promoting innovation entrepreneurship,and so on.

关 键 词：脱实向虛 房地产价格 创新产出 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]