省域入境旅游收入的时间序列特征---以海南省为例  

Time Series Characteristics of Provincial Inbound Tourism Income---A Case Study of Hainan Province

作　　者：马晓龙[1] 王海燕 陈泠静 尹平 Ma Xiaolong;Wang Haiyan;Chen Lingjing;Yin Ping(The College of Tourism and Service Management,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China;School of Economics and Management,Kashi University,Xinjiang 844000,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学旅游与服务学院,天津300350 [2]喀什大学经济与管理学院,新疆喀什844000 [3]中铁四川生态城投资有限公司,四川眉山620500

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2022年第1期25-36,共12页Tourism Forum

基　　金：南开大学百名青年学科带头人项目(91923111);天津市艺术科学规划项目(B20014);天津市高校习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究联盟项目;新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划人文社科项目(XJEDU2020SY025);喀什大学重点课题((18)1626)。

摘　　要：省域入境旅游经济既存在能反映真实变动特征的确定性趋势和周期,也存在因产业敏感特性所致的季节和随机扰动特征,了解这种经济特征是认识其运行规律的关键所在。采用Census X13季节调整和HP滤波结合的方法,测量海南省入境旅游经济的潜在增长趋势、周期、季节和随机冲击等时间序列特征,结果表明:长期来看,海南省入境旅游收入值呈现出“三段式”的潜在增长趋势,各周期间存在时间跨度差异、波动率变化和扩收比例不定等显著非对称现象,且随着时间演化也呈现出震动幅度越来越大和稳定性越来越低的特征;产业运行对随机因素的冲击较为敏感,季节性因素在年际间存在规律性促进和抑制时段,季节性和随机因子产生的正负效应对等。本研究认为,季节调整和HP滤波结合的方法对衡量旅游经济时间序列特征具有很强的适用性。入境旅游产业本身有较强的环境适应性和自我恢复力,旅游产业拉动区域经济发展的战略措施值得肯定。省域入境旅游经济在发展过程中存在阶段性停滞和周期间的非对称,支持性政策对旅游经济的确定性持续增长具有显著的推动作用,政府应在充分认识旅游经济时间序列特征的基础上发挥调控作用。Provincial inbound tourism economy not only has deterministic trends and cycles that can reflect the real characteristics of changes,but also has the characteristics of seasonal and random disturbances caused by industrial sensitivity.Mastering this kind of economic characteristics is the key to understand its operation law.By using the method of Census X13 seasonal adjustment and HP filtering,this paper measures the time series characteristics of potential growth trend,cycle,season and random shock of inbound tourism economy in Hainan Province.The results show that in the long run,the overall development trend of inbound tourism economy in Hainan Province is good,showing the characteristics of“three-stage”development.From 2002 to 2008,income growth was slow;from 2009 to 2014,it experienced growth bottlenecks,so income growth was flat or even decreased slightly;and from 2015 to 2019,it broke through the bottleneck period and income grew rapidly.Inbound tourism revenue has gone through a total of eleven cycles(including two incomplete cycles),during which there are significant asymmetric phenomena such as time span difference,fluctuation rate change and uncertain expansion ratio,and the vibration amplitude is getting larger and the stability is getting lower and lower as time goes by.Industrial operation is sensitive to the impact of random factors,external random factors are very broken and dense,and the impact effects of these events vary,and some specific events will even hit or greatly promote the growth of inbound tourism economy in the short term.Seasonal factors have regular promotion and inhibition periods between years,showing the morphological characteristics of“V+W”in annual units.And with the passage of time,the morphological characteristics of“V”become more and more obvious.But on the whole,the positive and negative effects of seasonal and random factors are equal.The study shows that the combination of seasonal adjustment and HP filtering data processing can effectively adapt to the regio

关 键 词：省域入境旅游 时间序列特征 海南省 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]