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作 者:Wenfang Leng Hong S.He Hongjuan Liu
机构地区:[1]Group of Landscape Ecology,Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China [2]The Tourism Department,Qinghuangdao Institute of Technology,Qinghuangdao 066100,China [3]Department of Forest,School of Nature Resources,University of Missouri,Columbia,MO 65211,USA [4]Group of Information Management of Agriculture and Ecosystem,Center for Agriculture Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050021,China
出 处:《Journal of Plant Ecology》2008年第3期203-205,共3页植物生态学报(英文版)
基 金:China’s Natural Science Foundation(40331008);the Innova-tion Program of the Chinese Academy of Science(KSCX2-SW-133);the Key Technology and Demonstration on Forestry Eco-logical Building Project(2006BAD03A09);the National 863 Plans Project(2006AA10Z251).
摘 要:Global warming has changed the distributions of forests of northeastern China.Larix are very important species in this area.Predicting the potential distributions of Larix species and their responses to climate change would attract more and more attention.This paper predicted the potential distributions of three Larix species based on‘climatic-topographic’relationships by logistic regression.The results showed that L.gmelinii is predicted to retreat northwestward by 220 km by 2050 and by 270 km more by 2100;L.olgensis var.changpaiensis is predicted to retreat northwestward by 200 km by 2050 and by 190 to 300 km more by 2100;L.principis-rupprechtii is predicted to retreat northeastward by 200 km by 2050 and by 250 to 400 km more by 2100.This indicated that L.gmelinii could have its optimum latitude moved into Russia,L.olgensis var.changpaiensis could move to the Small Xing’an Mountains and L.principisrupprechtii would move to the middle part of the Great Xing’an Mountains.
关 键 词:Larix gmelinii Larix olgensis var.changpaiensis Larix principis-rupprechtii logistic regression climate change Northeastern China
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