美国贸易政策不确定性对粮食价格的时变冲击效应与政策启示  

Time-varying Shock Effects and Policy Enlightenment of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on Grain Prices

作　　者：邓俊锋[1] 郑钊 石建 花俊国[1] DENG Junfeng;ZHENG Zhao;SHI Jian;HUA Junguo(School of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,郑州450046 [2]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2022年第1期79-92,共14页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJA790027)。

摘　　要：在中美贸易摩擦不断升级和全球疫情爆发背景下,粮食安全问题再度备受关注。在建立基本理论框架分析美国贸易政策不确定性对中国粮食价格冲击的传导机制和渠道效应的基础上,采用TVP—FAVAR模型分析美国贸易政策不确定性对中国粮食价格冲击的时变特征。研究表明,2002~2020年美国贸易政策不确定性对中国粮食价格的冲击呈现渐弱趋稳、大幅波动和冲击加深三个明显的阶段性特征;对大豆价格主要是正向冲击,对玉米、小麦和大米价格主要是负向冲击。基于此,我国政府相关部门和市场主体应广泛利用“两种资源、两个市场”,灵活运用期现货市场,构建国内国际双循环融合发展新格局,有效维持中国粮食价格相对稳定和保障粮食安全。In the context of the escalation of the Chinese-American trade crises and the global outbreak,the everlasting issue of food security has attracted renewed attention.The transmission channels of U.S.trade policy uncertainty on China’s food price shocks through theoretical analysis were identified,and the timevarying characteristics of U.S.trade policy uncertainty on China’s food price shocks using the TVP-FAVAR model(time-varying parameter factor augmented vector autoregression model) were investigated.The results showed that the impact of U.S.trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain prices from 2002 to 2020 had three distinct phases:"gradual stabilization,large fluctuations and deepening shocks";it was mainly a positive impact on soybean prices and a negative impact on corn,wheat and rice price.The impact was mainly positive for soybean prices and negative for corn,wheat and rice price.Building on this,it was suggested that China’s responsible government agencies and market entities took full advantage of "two resources and two markets",the spot market flexibly was used,constructing a new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation integration,maintained the Chinese relative grain price effectively and political recommendations were given to stabilize and ensure food security.

关 键 词：美国贸易政策不确定性 粮食价格 中美贸易战 TVP—FAVAR模型 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济]