RCEP自贸区内中国农产品出口效应及贸易前景——基于随机模型及细分市场的实证分析  

Research on the Export Effects and Trade Prospects of China’s Agricultural Products Market in the RCEP Free Trade Zone——Based on the Stochastic Model and Empirical Analysis of Market Segments

作　　者：课题组 陈雨生[1] Research Group(Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2022年第4期56-66,共11页China Business and Market

基　　金：中央农村工作领导小组办公室;农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题“饲料粮供给保障能力问题研究”(202104)。

摘　　要：运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易指数分析法,计算出口贸易拓展空间(TS)和农产品进口依赖度(IRCA)两项指标,借鉴波士顿矩阵分析法预测中国在RCEP区域内的农产品贸易前景,揭示建立RCEP自贸区对中国贸易前景的影响。研究显示,尽管在细分产品市场上有不同的贸易前景,但总体而言,中国与东盟的农产品贸易前景光明;无论是中国经济规模还是其他成员国经济规模,均对中国农产品出口有正向促进;中国与东盟大多数国家距离近,便于农产品贸易,且与东盟大多数国家的气候条件、资源禀赋等差异较大,在RCEP区域内的农产品贸易存在较大的贸易拓展空间,RCEP正式生效后将为中国农产品贸易带来战略机遇。中国应促进“一带一路”倡议与RCEP对接,尽快落实RCEP,扩大中国农产品尤其是食品加工类农产品贸易;推动RCEP区域内产业链供应链紧密融合,促进区域内生产要素自由流动;各相关部门采取相应措施,共同提升国内农产品产业和企业竞争力。With the help of time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade index analysis,the authors establish such two indicators as export trade expansion space(TS) and agricultural product import dependence(IRCA),use the Boston Matrix analysis method to predict the trade prospects of China’s agricultural products within the RCEP regions,and reveal the impact of the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) free trade zone on China’s trade prospects. The results show that:though there are different trade prospects in different market segments,generally speaking,the prospects of China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) in agricultural product is bright;both China’s and other member countries’ economic scale will have positive impact on China’s export of agricultural products;because of the short distance between China and most of the member countries of ASEAN,which is the convenient condition for the trade of agricultural products,and the different weather conditions and resources endowment between China and most of the member countries of ASEAN,there are significant space for China to expand the trade of agricultural products within the RCEP regions;and after the formal implementation of RCEP,it will bring China’s trade of agricultural products with strategic opportunity.China should,first,promote the connection between the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) and RECP,implement the rules of RCEP,and expand China’s trade of agricultural products,especially the processed food;second,China should promote the close integration of industrial chain and supply chain within the RCEP regions,and promote the free flow the factors of production within these regions;and third,related departments in China should adopt countermeasures to jointly improve the competitiveness of domestic agricultural industries and enterprises.

关 键 词：《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》 农产品 出口效应 贸易前景 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F125.1[经济管理—世界经济]