基于遥感数据的不确定性的农业水资源优化配置研究——以漳河灌区为例  

Optimal allocation of uncertain agricultural water resources based on remote sensing data:Taking Zhanghe irrigation area as an example

作　　者：赵金淼 佟玲[1] 岳琼 郑静 黄鑫 李鹏[2] ZHAO Jinmiao;TONG Ling;YUE Qiong;ZHENG Jing;HUANG Xin;LI Peng(Center of Agricultural Water Research in China,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Hubei Zhanghe Project Administration Bureau,Jingmen 448156,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京100083 [2]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2022年第4期244-255,共12页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC0403201)。

摘　　要：针对现有农业水资源优化配置存在的空间分辨率较大,忽略降雨量参数的时空变异性,难以满足实际生产中更精确的管理要求的问题,以湖北省漳河灌区典型枯水年为例,采用基于遥感数据的水资源优化配置方法,分析全球降雨测量数据和多年雨量站站点数据关系,获取漳河灌区典型年空间降雨量数据集。在此基础上,将区间数、模糊区间数、模糊可信性约束规划以及作物水分生产函数耦合到一般非线性优化模型框架内,构建模糊区间可信性约束非线性规划模型,以经济效益为优化目标,对漳河灌区不同分灌区生育期内各个月的农业灌水量进行优化配置。优化结果表明:模型可以有效处理配置系统的复杂非线性、不确定性和违规风险问题,不同可信水平下的优化配水方案能够为灌区管理者提供丰富的决策指导,促进灌区农业水资源高效利用与精准管理。This study is aimed at the problems existing in the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources(e.g.,the large spatial resolution,the negligence of temporal and the spatial variability of rainfall parameters),which make it difficult to meet the requirements of more accurate management in actual production.Taking Zhanghe irrigation agea in Hubei Province as an example,the relationship between global precipitation measurement data and multi-year precipitation station data is analyzed by using the method of water resources optimization allocation based on remote sensing data,and the data set of typical annual spatial precipitation in Zhanghe irrigation area is obtained.On this basis,the interval number,interval number fuzzy,fuzzy reliability constraint programming and crop water production function are coupled to a general nonlinear optimization model framework.A fuzzy interval reliability constraint nonlinear programming model is construct,by taking the economic benefit as the optimization target,the agricultural irrigation amount in each month during the growth period of Zhanghe irrigation area is optimized.The optimization results show that the model can effectively deal with the complex nonlinear,uncertainty and violation risk problems of the allocation system,and the optimal water distribution schemes at different confidence levels can provide rich decision-making guidance for the managers of the irrigation area,and promote the efficient utilization and accurate management of agricultural water resources in the irrigation area.

关 键 词：漳河灌区 GPM数据 模糊数 区间数 可信性约束 水资源优化配置 

分 类 号：S274.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]