基于结构方程模型的危险品道路运输影响因素研究  

Research on Influencing Factors of Road Transportation of Dangerous Goods Based on Structural Equation Model

作　　者：展定玉 杨延梅[1] 李伟[2] ZHAN Ding-yu;YANG Yan-mei;LI Wei(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070;Yuci Station,Daqin Railway Company Limited,Jinzhong 030600,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]大秦铁路股份有限公司榆次站,山西晋中030600

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2022年第3期87-91,23,共6页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：甘肃省自然基金项目(18JR3RA107)。

摘　　要：为直观了解影响危险品安全运输的因素在事故中的参与度和相互间的影响,通过事故调查分析,以设施、危险品、人、环境作为内生潜变量,以管理为外源潜变量,以事故的发生为最终结果,在数据分析的基础上加入驾驶人员行为变量因素,建立结构方程模型,最终得到单个影响因素在事故中的参与程度和各影响因素间的相关性。数据分析结果显示,环境对于人的影响为23%,人对于设施的影响达到44%,设施对于危险品的影响为34%,人员资质对于事故的影响为21%,驾驶行为对事故的影响为17.1%,对事故的解释能力达到70%。对影响因素进行分析判断可为事故预警提供理论支持。In order to intuitively understand the participation and mutual influence of factors that affect the safe transportation of dangerous goods in accidents,through accident investigation and analysis with facilities,dangerous goods,people and the environment as endogenous latent variables,management as exogenous latent variable,and the occurrence of accident as the final result,this paper added driver behavior variable factors on the basis of big data analysis,established a structural equation model,and finally got the participation of a single influencing factor in the accident and the correlation between various influencing factors. The results of the data analysis show that the environment’s influence on people is 23%,people’s influence on facilities reaches 44%,facilities’ influence on dangerous goods is 34%. The impact of personnel qualifications on the accident is21% and that of driving behavior on the accident is 17. 1%. The ability to explain accidents reaches 70%. The analysis and judgment of influencing factors provide theoretical support for the accident early warning.

关 键 词：公路运输 危险品 影响因素 结构方程模型 驾驶行为 

分 类 号：U4-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]