1961-2019年中国区域连续性暴雨过程的危险性区划  

The risk regionalization of regional continuity rainstorm processes in China during 1961-2019

作　　者：马铮 王国复[2] 张颖娴[2] MA Zheng;WANG Guo-Fu;ZHANG Ying-Xian(College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,青岛266100 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第2期142-153,共12页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510202)。

摘　　要：利用暴雨区连续追踪的思路和全国2481个气象站逐日降水资料对1961—2019年全国区域连续性暴雨过程(Regional Continuity Rainstorm Process,RCRP)进行客观识别,并根据RCRP的持续时间、影响范围、最大日降水量和最大过程降水量建立和改进危险性评估模型和危险性区划。结果显示:1961—2019年中国共发生2294次RCRP,危险性排名前十强的RCRP与历史记录相符;其危险性空间分布特征与我国降水气候态分布相似,由东南向西北逐级递减;我国RCRP的高危险性区域位于华南和江南地区;危险性的季节空间分布与同季节的降水特征相关,春季华南地区的RCRP高危险性等级体现了我国华南前汛期的影响;夏季华北和东北地区的RCRP危险性高于其他季节,沿海地区的高危险性体现了台风暴雨的影响;秋季四川北部的危险区主要体现了华西秋雨的影响;单次RCRP危险性区划表征本次暴雨洪涝受灾程度大小的分布情况,可以直观地判断此次RCRP对我国相应区域造成暴雨洪涝灾害的大小分布情况。其研究结果增进了对于RCRP演变规律的认识,对于预测未来RCRP季节或次季节内等不同时间内的区域危险性强度大小及其相关的暴雨洪涝灾害风险防范具有重要意义。Regional Continuity Rainstorm Proceses(RCRP)were analyzed by using the idea of continuous rainstorm tracking and the daily precipitation data of 2481 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2019.According to the duration,sphere of influence,maximum daily precipitation and maximum process precipitation of the RCRP,the hazard assessment model and risk regionalization were established and improved.The results show that a total of 2294 RCRP occurred in China from 1961 to 2019,and the risk of each of the top 10 RCRP ranked by the comprehensive intensity index was consistent with the historical record.The spatial distribution of RCRP’risk is similar to the distribution of climate precipitation in China,and it gradually decreases from southeast to northwest.The high risk areas of RCRP in China are located in South China and Jiangnan region.The seasonal spatial distribution of the risk is related to the characteristics of precipitation in the same season.The high risk level of spring RCRP in South China reflects the influence of the first flood season in South China.The risk of RCRP in North China and Northeast China in summer is higher than that in other seasons,and the high risk in coastal areas reflected the influence of typhoon and rainstorm.The high risk of autumn RCRP mainly reflects the influence of autumn rain in West China.The single RCRP risk regionalization represents the distribution of the rainstorm and flood disaster degree,and can intuitively judge the distribution of the rainstorm and flood disaster caused by the RCRP.The study enhances the understanding of the evolution of RCRP and is of great significance in predicting the intensity of regional risk in different seasons and sub-seasons of RCRP in the future,and preventing the risk of rainstorm and flood disasters it might bring about.

关 键 词：区域连续性暴雨过程 危险性评估模型 危险性区划 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]