气候变化背景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估  

Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change

作　　者：王霞 王瑛[1,2] 林齐根[3] 李宁 张馨仁[1,2] 周笑影[1,2] WANG Xia;WANG Ying;LIN Qi-Gen;LI Ning;ZHANG Xin-Ren;ZHOU Xiao-Ying(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China;Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第2期166-176,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906,2019QZKK0606)。

摘　　要：中国是世界上滑坡灾害造成人口伤亡较严重的国家。受气候变化影响,极端降水频率与强度的增加会提高滑坡灾害的人口风险。文中将不同RCPs情景多个模式的未来降水数据和SSPs情景下的未来人口数据相结合,构建滑坡灾害人口风险评估模型,评估气候变化背景下的中国滑坡灾害人口风险。研究发现,气候变化下中国滑坡灾害的危险性呈上升趋势,预估21世纪中期(2031—2060年)RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国滑坡灾害高危险区面积相较于基准时期(1970—2000年)将分别增长5.5%和7.9%。其中,青藏高原地区增长最为显著。中国未来滑坡灾害的人口风险呈现先增长后下降的趋势,RCP8.5/SSP3情景较RCP4.5/SSP2情景上升更多,预计21世纪中期滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口将由基准时期的639人增加至956人;21世纪末期(2071—2100年),由于滑坡灾害暴露人口下降,年均伤亡人口将减至737人。未来浙江、广东、四川、云南和西藏省始终是滑坡灾害伤亡人口最高的省份,需加大防范措施,降低滑坡灾害人口风险。China is a country in the world where landslides disasters have caused serious casualties.Due to the impact of climate change,the occurrence of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity is projected to be on the rise,which will increase the population risk of landslide disasters.This paper coupled the future precipitation data of multiple models in different RCPs scenarios and the population data in SSPs scenario into an established landslides risk model to quantitatively assess the projected changes in China landslides population risk.The results showed that compared with the baseline period(1970-2000),the high-landslide-hazard zones is projected to increase by 5.5%and 7.9%,respectively under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the middle 21st century(2031-2060).The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the most significant growth.The population risk of landslides disasters in China shows increasing trend and then decreases under the RCPs-SSPs scenarios.Compared with the RCP4.5/SSP2,the average annually casualty of landslide disasters will increase from 639 to 956 under the RCP8.5/SSP3 in the middle 21st century.In the end of the 21st century(2071-2100),due to the decline of exposure population,the average annual casualties of landslide disasters will decrease to 737.In the future,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Sichuan,Yunnan,and Tibet will always be the provinces with the highest casualties of landslides disaster.Therefore,it is necessary to increase risk prevention measures to reduce the population risk of landslides disaster.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端降水 滑坡灾害 人口风险 中国 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P642.22