基于随机森林的寒区奶牛舍环境因素与产奶量关系研究  

Relationship between Environmental Factors and Milk Yield of Dairy Cow House in Cold Region Based on Random Forest

作　　者：丁涛[1] 蒋雷生 施正香[1,3] 赵洋 马慧 DING Tao;JIANG Leisheng;SHI Zhengxiang;ZHAO Yang;MA Hui(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing Engineering Research Center of Safety and Energy Saving Technology for Water Supply Network System,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Engineering in Structure and Environment,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing Shounong Animal Husbondy Development Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京市供水管网与安全节能中心,北京100083 [3]农业农村部设施农业工程重点实验室,北京100083 [4]北京首农畜牧发展有限公司,北京100083

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2021年第12期378-385,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFF0213604、2018YFD0501600);财政部和农业农村部:国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-36)。

摘　　要：寒区奶牛长时间处于非热应激状态,为了了解此阶段影响产奶量的主要环境因素,本文根据连续监测的环境数据,从日均值、百分位值角度研究了牛舍内温度、相对湿度、风速、二氧化碳浓度、氨气浓度、光照强度与奶牛每日头均产奶量之间的关系。同时,以产奶量为预测目标建立了基于环境因素的随机森林回归模型。结果表明光照强度与二氧化碳浓度是影响产奶量两个较为重要的环境因素,尤其是在低温时对奶牛生产影响较大。光照强度日均值250lx与二氧化碳浓度日均值8×10^(-4)可以较为明显地划分高低产奶量。高产奶量样本点同样集中在光照强度第90百分位数高于800lx、二氧化碳浓度第10百分位数低于6×10^(-4)的区域。用于评价回归模型泛化能力的平均决定系数为0.7316,平均均方根误差为1.0370kg。根据结果建议寒区奶牛舍非热应激时期,至少保证每日不低于800lx的光照2.5h,同时控制二氧化碳浓度高于6×10^(-4)的时间不超过2.33h。Dairy cows in cold regions are in non-heat stress state for a long time.Aiming to understand the main environmental factors affecting milk yield,the relationship between temperature,humidity,wind speed,carbon dioxide concentration,ammonia concentration,light intensity and average daily milk yield of dairy cows was studied from the perspective of daily mean and percentile values based on continuous monitoring environmental data.Meanwhile,a random forest regression model based on environmental factors was established to predict milk yield.The results showed that light intensity and carbon dioxide concentration were two important environmental factors affecting milk yield,especially at low temperature.The average daily light intensity of 250lx and the average daily carbon dioxide concentration of 8×10^(-4)could obviously classify high and low milk yield.The sample sites with high milk yield were also concentrated in the areas where the 90th percentile of light intensity was higher than 800lx and the 10th percentile of carbon dioxide concentration was lower than 6×10^(-4).The mean determination coefficient and mean root mean square error used to evaluate the generalization ability of regression model were 0.7316 and 1.0370 kg,respectively.According to the results,it was suggested that during the non-heat stress period of dairy barns in cold areas,at least 2.5h of light should be guaranteed for no less than 800lx per day,and the time when carbon dioxide concentration was higher than 6×10^(-4)should be controlled for no more than 2.33h.

关 键 词：寒区奶牛舍 环境因素 非热应激 产奶量 随机森林 

分 类 号：S811.5[农业科学—畜牧学]