中国行业资产可逆性测算研究  

China’s Industry-level Asset Reversibility and Reliability Tests

作　　者：刘媛媛 叶永卫 LIU Yuan-yuan;YE Yong-wei(School of Finance,1.Guangdong University of Foreign Studies Guangzhou 510006,China;Southern China Institute of Fortune Management Research,1.Guangdong University of Foreign Studies Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,广东广州510006 [2]广东外语外贸大学广州华南财富管理中心研究基地,广东广州510006 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2022年第4期13-23,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：资产可逆性是企业投融资决策的重要决定因素之一,用来刻画投资项目在未来时期宣告失败时进行变现或者被再利用的能力。利用1987—2012年国民经济投入产出表对中国行业资产可逆性指数进行测算,结果显示:从时间维度来看,行业资产可逆性在1987—2002年呈现出波动特征,之后表现为明确的下降趋势。2002年是结构变化点,原因在于行业分化现象在中国加入WTO后不断加剧,专用性投资快速增加。从行业维度来看,交通运输业、批发零售业等服务性行业的资产可逆性较高,第一产业及其相关产业(如畜牧业、纺织业等)的资产可逆性较低,反映了中国二元城乡经济结构、服务业在国民经济中占比不断攀升的客观事实。利用测算结果对企业投融资决策的实物期权理论、交易成本理论和契约理论进行了检验,证实了资产可逆性指标的可靠性。上述结论为资产可逆性的后续相关研究提供了一种适用于中国情景的测算框架,并提出建立高效资产交易市场和机制至关重要。Asset reversibility is one of the core concepts of corporate finance theory.In recent years,scholars are committed to finding appropriate measurement indicators and carrying out empirical research on its economic consequences.In order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional measurement methods,Kim and Kung proposed a new method to calculate the reversibility of assets,which has the advantage of taking into account the transaction characteristics of assets between and within industries.Drawing on its calculation ideas,we attempt to calculate the reversibility of industrial assets in China by using the basic flow table of national economic input-output table over the years,and makes a comparative analysis of the calculation results from the two dimensions of time and industry.Using the national input-output table over 1987-2012 to measure China’s industry-level asset reversibility,the results show that China’s industry-level asset reversibility performs a fluctuating pattern before 2002,and then continuously falls.The finding indicates that since China jointed WTO in 2002,industry differentiation has intensified and specific investment has increased,leading to decreased asset reversibility across industries.Furthermore,asset reversibility of service industries(e.g.,transportation,wholesale and retail)is high,while that of the primary industry and its related industries(e.g.,animal husbandry and textile industry)is low,consistent with the stylized facts of China’s dual urban and rural economic structure and the rising proportion of the service industry.Finally,based on the econometric framework related to the real option theory,transaction cost theory and contract theory,three kinds of tests confirm that the index of industry-level asset reversibility is reliable.Compared with the existing literature,the main contributions of this paper are as follows:First,it provides a framework suitable for measuring the reversibility of industrial assets in China.Different from using the proportion of fixed assets or t

关 键 词：行业资产可逆性 企业投融资决策 投入产出表 实物期权 交易成本 契约理论 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]