2021年中国禽肉市场回顾及“十四五”时期展望  

Review on China’s Poultry Market in 2021 and Its Outlook for the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

作　　者：李向阳 张莉[1] Li Xiangyang;Zhang Li(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Big Ari-data,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Center for International Agricultural Research,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业农村部农业大数据重点实验室/农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室/中国农业科学院海外农业研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2022年第1期33-39,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部农产品市场监测预警项目;中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“国际农业科技情报研究”(Y2021ZK07)。

摘　　要：2021年是“十四五”开局之年,中国肉禽养殖业产能维持高位,产量继续增加;受禽肉产能释放和猪肉价格下跌影响,禽肉市场价格弱势运行;饲料价格明显上涨,肉禽养殖效益降低。随着禁止活禽市场政策陆续推进,加上疫情、替代品消费增加等多重因素影响,禽肉需求短时间内增长受限,产业发展面临新的挑战。“十四五”时期,在国家畜牧业发展规划的引领下,肉禽产业将加快转型升级,生产保持稳步增长;行业将立足于消费者,积极开发新产品,促进多元消费;预计消费量持续增加,特别是鸭肉消费增加空间较大;禽肉进口规模有望缩减,仍保持净进口格局的可能性较大。基于此,建议做好产能调控,合理控制生产成本;促进冷链物流建设,加强屠宰和销售市场管理;产业链上下游齐发力,多措并举促进消费。In 2021,the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan,the production capacity of China’s poultry industry remained high and the output continued to increase.Affected by the release of poultry production capacity and the decline of pork price,the poultry market price was weak.Feed prices rose significantly and the efficiency of poultry breeding decreased.With the continuous promotion of the policy of banning the live poultry market,coupled with the impact of multiple factors such as the pandemic situation and the increase of substitute consumption,the growth of poultry demand is limited in a short time,and the industrial development is facing new challenges.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,under the guidance of the national animal husbandry development plan,the transformation and upgrading of poultry industry will accelerate,and the production will maintain a steady growth.The consumers will dominate poultry industry,which will actively develop new products and promote diversified consumption.Based on the above,the consumption will continue to increase,especially the consumption of duck meat.The reduced import scale of poultry meat is expected,and it is more likely to maintain the net import pattern.On this basis,it was suggested to do a good job in capacity regulation and reasonably production costs control;promoting the construction of cold chain logistics and strengthening the management of slaughtering and sales market;the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain should make concerted efforts and take multiple measures to promote consumption.

关 键 词：禽肉 生产 价格 消费 贸易 “十四五”展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]