如何在量化宽松政策退出中保持充分就业与金融稳定:美联储面对挑战(上)  

How to Maintain Full Employment and Financial Stability in the Midst of Quantitative Easing Exit:The FED Facing Challenges (Ⅰ)

作　　者：贾森·弗曼 王宇(译)[3] Jason Furman;Wang Yu(Translated)

机构地区：[1]美国哈佛大学肯尼迪学院 [2]哈佛大学经济系 [3]中国人民银行研究局

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2022年第3期26-28,共3页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：当前,美国的失业率降至2017年以来最低水平,通货膨胀率升至1990年以来最高水平,实际利率和长期利率双双开始下行,美国货币政策正在调整,美联储将退出量化宽松。美联储应将膨胀预期转向“中性”或“担忧”,说明货币政策“目标”与“现实”的冲突,加快推进资产购买计划的缩减进程,在2022年上半年进入加息通道四项措施,并应当保持政策的连续性和稳定性,缓慢、谨慎地由非常宽松向适度紧缩调整,以在量化宽松退出中保持充分就业和金融稳定。此外,应当充分考虑财政政策与货币政策的不同职责和特征,货币政策根据经济数据的变化灵活适时调整,财政政策则着眼于中长期计划和中长期发展。Currently,the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since 2017,the inflation rate has risen to the highest level since 1990,and both real and long-term interest rates have begun to decline.The US monetary policy is being adjusted,and the FED will withdraw from quantitative easing. The FED should turn its inflation expectations to "neutral" or "concerned",explain the conflict between the "target" and "reality" of monetary policy,accelerate the process of reducing the asset purchase program,and enter the interest rate hike channel in the first half of 2022. It should accelerate the tapering process of the asset purchase program and enter the interest rate hike channel in the first half of 2022 four measures,and should maintain policy continuity and stability,slowly and cautiously adjust from very loose to moderately tight, in order to maintain full employment and financial stability in the quantitative easing exit. In addition,due consideration should be given to the different responsibilities and characteristics of fiscal policy and monetary policy, with monetary policy being flexible and timely adjusted according to changes in economic data,while fiscal policy focuses on medium-and long-term planning and medium-and long-term development.

关 键 词：量化宽松 充分就业 金融稳定 货币政策 财政政策 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]