美军撤离阿富汗后印度对阿政策走向  

Analysis on the Trend of Indian Policy towards Afghanistan After the Withdrawal of U.S.Troops From Afghanistan

作　　者：瞿继文 Qu Jiwen

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院

出　　处：《南亚研究季刊》2022年第1期35-50,157,共17页South Asian Studies Quarterly

摘　　要：美军仓促撤离阿富汗,使得阿国内政治安全形势发生急剧变化。这种复杂变化给印度的阿富汗政策带来了严重冲击。究其原因,主要来自于印度的对阿政策对美国有严重的依赖性、与周边国家对阿立场发生分歧,以及无法摆脱从印巴地缘竞争视角来处理“阿塔”问题三个方面。从目前看,印度为防止自身在阿富汗事务中再度被边缘化,将主要依赖于在多边和双边领域强化与国际政治伙伴的合作,尽可能减小阿富汗乱局给印度带来的安全威胁。虽然印度短期内在阿事务上面临一定外交挑战,但是由于阿富汗自身的历史发展特点及其国内局势走向还存在较多变数,印度对阿政策还有较大可发挥空间。The hasty withdrawal of U.S.troops from Afghanistan has dramatically changed the domestic political and security situation in Afghanistan.This complex change made a serious impact on India's Afghan policy.The reasons mainly come from three main aspects:India's serious dependence on the United States in its policy towards Afghanistan,differences with neighboring countries'positions towards Afghanistan,and the inability to deal with the Taliban issue from the perspective of Indo-Pakistan geopolitical competition.At present,in order to prevent its re-marginalization in Afghan affairs,India would mainly rely on strengthening cooperation with international political partners in multilateral and bilateral fields to minimize the security threat to India caused by the chaos in Afghanistan.Although India faces certain diplomatic challenges in Afghanistan affairs in the short term,there is still room for India's policy towards Kabul due to Afghanistan's own historical development characteristics and uncertainties in the domestic situation.

关 键 词：阿富汗塔利班 印阿关系 印巴关系 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学] D837.2[政治法律—外交学]