收入不确定与中国家庭经济脆弱性:兼论重大突发公共事件的影响  

Income Uncertainty and Household Economic Vulnerability:Also on the Impact of Momentous Public Emergency

作　　者：周利 周弘[2] 王聪[3] ZHOU Li;ZHOU Hong;WANG Cong

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院,广东广州510006 [2]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [3]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2022年第2期67-75,共9页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“人口老龄化与中国家庭资产配置效率研究”(20CJL031)。

摘　　要：受新冠肺炎疫情这一重大突发公共事件的影响,家庭的收入不确定风险增加,而可以反映风险冲击对居民消费和福利影响的家庭经济脆弱性此时将发生何种变化呢?研究发现:以对数收入方差衡量的收入不确定冲击显著增大了家庭经济脆弱性;脆弱性的各分解部分中,贫困部分的风险对收入不确定冲击最为敏感;相较于持久性冲击,暂时性冲击测度的不确定风险对家庭经济脆弱性的作用程度更强。收入不确定冲击通过进一步强化流动性约束而最终作用于家庭经济脆弱性。对于农村地区家庭、发生灾难性医疗支出以及社会资本匮乏的家庭,收入不确定冲击对家庭经济脆弱性的影响程度更强。Affected by COVID-19 pandemic,households are faced with the risk of rising income uncertainty.Then what will happen to the household economic vulnerability,which can reflect the impact of risk shocks on household consumption and welfare?Empirical study shows that the income uncertainty measured by the logarithm of income variance significantly increase the household economic vulnerability,that among the components of vulnerability,poverty risk is the most sensitive to income uncertainty,and that,compared to permanent uncertainty,temporary uncertainty has a stronger effect on household economic vulnerability.The impact of income uncertainty will ultimately affect household economic vulnerability by further strengthening liquidity constraints.For households in rural areas,and families with catastrophic medical expenditures,and families with a lack of social capital,income fluctuations will produce a greater impact on household vulnerability.

关 键 词：收入不确定 家庭经济脆弱性 脆弱性分解 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]