基于多阶段随机规划的中国未来电源结构研究  

Future Power Structure of China Based on Multi-stage Stochastic Planning

作　　者：王帅 王志成 王智冬 王秀丽[2] 张艳 张静怡 辛超山 WANG Shuai;WANG Zhicheng;WANG Zhidong;WANG Xiuli;ZHANG Yan;ZHANG Jingyi;XIN Chaoshan(State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京市102209 [2]西安交通大学电气工程学院,西安市710049 [3]国网新疆电力有限公司经济技术研究院,乌鲁木齐市830000

出　　处：《电力建设》2022年第4期100-107,共8页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部科技项目“高比例新能源电力系统网架形态与演化技术研究”(SGXJJY00GHJS2000091)。

摘　　要：作为“碳达峰,碳中和”目标实现的重要部分,电力系统的低碳化转型始终是中国能源行业的关键问题。为了更好地实现能源资源的优化配置和低碳目标的顺利实现,建立了基于多阶段随机规划和多区域电源结构规划的中国未来电源结构发展规划模型。模型以规划期内总成本的期望值最小为目标,计及电力电量平衡、调峰平衡、区域互联等多方面约束条件,并引入了序贯决策所需的非预期约束条件使得规划结果集在多个不确定场景下分别达到最优,更好地模拟未来发展决策过程。考虑中国未来负荷和用电量增长的不确定性,文章对2020—2060年中国电源装机结构和发电结构进行规划,预测和分析了中国未来电源的发展和演进情况。As an important part of achieving the goal of“Carbon Neutrality”,the low-carbon transformation of the power system has always been a key issue for China’s energy industry.In order to better realize the optimal allocation of energy resources and the smooth realization of low carbon targets,this paper established a planning model of China’s future power structure applying multi-stage stochastic programming and multi-region power structure planning methodology.The model is objected to minimize the total expected cost during the planning period,and subjected to constraints including load balancing,inter-regional transmission and peak regulation.The proposed model also introduces the non-anticipated constraint which is necessary for the sequential decision making of multi-stage planning,thus achieving the optimal schemes in sequential and better simulating the decision making process.Considering the uncertainty of the future load and electricity consumption growth,this paper optimizes the power capacity structure and power generation structure in China from 2020 to 2060,and forecasts the future power sector development in China.

关 键 词：电源结构 多阶段随机规划 不确定性 序贯决策 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]