A four-compartment model for the COVID-19 infection—implications on infection kinetics,control measures,and lockdown exit strategies  

作　　者：Tianbing Wang Yanqiu Wu Johnson Yiu-Nam Lau Yingqi Yu Liyu Liu Jing Li Kang Zhang Weiwei Tong Baoguo Jiang 

机构地区：[1]Peking University People’s Hospital,Beijing 100044,China [2]Key Laboratory of Trauma and Neural Regeneration(Peking University),Ministry of Education,Beijing 100044,China [3]Department of Applied Biology and Chemical Technology,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,China [4]Gennlife(Beijing)Technology Co Ltd,Beijing,China [5]School of Medicine,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China [6]Center for Biomedicine and Innovations,Faculty of Medicine,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao,China

出　　处：《Precision Clinical Medicine》2020年第2期104-112,共9页精准临床医学（英文）

基　　金：This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFF0301103);Macao FDCT Grant(No.0035/2020/A);Guangzhou Regenerative Medicine and Health Guangdong Laboratory(Grant No.2020GZR110306001).

摘　　要：Objective:To analyse the impact and repercussions of the surge in healthcare demand in response to the COVID-19 pandemic,assess the potential effectiveness of various infection/disease control measures,and make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown.Design:A four-compartment model was constructed for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the Wuhan data and validated with data collected in Italy,the UK,and the US.The model captures the effectiveness of various disease suppression measures in three modifiable factors:(a)the per capita contact rate(β)that can be lowered by means of social distancing,(b)infection probability upon contacting infectious individuals that can be lowered by wearing facemasks,personal hygiene,etc.,and(c)the population of infectious individuals in contact with the susceptible population,which can be lowered by quarantine.The model was used to make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown.Results:The model was applied to evaluate the epidemiological data and hospital burden in Italy,the UK,and the US.The control measures were identified as the key drivers for the observed epidemiological data through sensitivity analyses.Analysing the different lockdown exit strategies showed that a lockdown exit strategy with a combination of social separation/general facemask use may work,but this needs to be supported by intense monitoring whichwould allowre-introduction/tightening of the controlmeasures if the number of newinfected subjects increases again.Conclusions and relevance:Governments should act early in a swift and decisive manner for containment policies.Any lockdown exit will need to be monitored closely,with regards to the potential of lockdown reimplementation.This mathematical model provides a framework for major pandemics in the future.

关 键 词：COVID-19 exit strategy population infection rates control measures 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]