基于多元回归分析的多因素影响弹药消耗预测  

Multi-factor Ammunition Consumption Prediction Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

作　　者：李广宁 史宪铭 LI Guang-ning;SHI Xian-ming(Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University, Shijiazhuang 050000, China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2022年第2期83-87,共5页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：针对当前分析弹药消耗影响客观因素时,所反映的影响规律不够直观的问题,采用多元回归分析原理及模型,借鉴定量评估模型,结合弹药消耗量的数据,利用SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solutions)软件弹药消耗量的影响因素进行多元回归分析,建立了回归方程来预测弹药消耗量。结果表明,利用SPSS软件直接对影响弹药消耗量的因素进行回归分析,避免了复杂的推导与计算。通过各模型的预测对比,发现预测精度较高。At present,when analyzing the objective factors of ammunition consumption,the influence law reflected is not intuitive enough.In this paper,the principle and model of multiple regression analysis are used,the quantitative evaluation model is used for reference,combined with the data of ammunition consumption,and Statistical Product and Service Solutions software is used to carry out multiple regression analysis on the influencing factors of ammunition consumption,and a regression equation is established to predict ammunition consumption.The results show that the regression analysis of factors affecting ammunition consumption by Statistical Product and Service Solutions software can avoid complicated deduction and calculation.Through the prediction comparison of each model,it is found that the prediction accuracy is high.

关 键 词：弹药消耗 多元回归 预测 SPSS 

分 类 号：E932[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]