欧洲过去千年气候变化与粮价关系研究进展  

Research progress on the relationship between climate change and grain price in Europe during the last millennium

作　　者：文彦君[1] 方修琦 叶瑜 赵志龙 萧凌波[3] WEN Yan-jun;FANG Xiu-qi;YE Yu;ZHAO Zhi-long;XIAO Ling-bo(College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China;Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;The Institute of Qing History, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]中国人民大学清史研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第1期68-73,共6页Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA19040101);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD092)。

摘　　要：目的以欧洲地区为代表,综述国际上历史气候变化与粮价关系研究的进展,为深入理解现代气候变化对粮食安全的影响提供借鉴。方法收集整理国内外相关文献,选择气候变化对粮价的影响、粮价波动对气候变化影响的传导、社会经济系统对粮价波动的缓冲与适应等视角,对欧洲地区过去千年气候变化与粮价关系研究的研究主题、研究方法及研究结论进行梳理与归纳。结果(1)粮价波动与温度、降水等气候要素的关联,粮食生产在气候变化影响粮价波动的中间环节作用,是相关研究关注的主要问题;(2)相关学者主要通过序列对比、相关和回归分析、因果关系检验、周期和频谱分析等定量方法开展研究;(3)多数研究成果证实了温度对欧洲不同时空尺度粮价变化的显著影响,以及“冷湿气候—粮食减产—粮价异常波动”的影响传递途径,但部分研究发现气候变化对粮价波动的影响程度存在显著时空差异。结论欧洲历史气候变化与粮价关系研究已经取得了大量成果,但涵盖气候、农业生产、经济、人口、社会子系统等多层面的气候变化、粮价波动、社会经济因素之间的关联研究还相对薄弱。Purposes—To review the research works on the relationship between climate change and grain price in historical Europe,and to provides reference for understanding the impact of modern climate change on food security.Methods—From such perspectives as the impact of climate change on grain price,the transmission of the climate change impact via grain price fluctuation,and the buffer and adaptation of social and economic systems to grain price fluctuation,carded and summarized are the research topics,methods and conclusions of the relationship between climate change and food prices in Europe during the last millennium.Result—(1)The correlation between grain price fluctuation and climate factors such as temperature and precipitation,and the role of grain production in the intermediate link between climate change and grain price fluctuation are research hotspots for relevant studies;(2)Relevant research are mainly conducted through quantitative methods such as sequence comparison,correlation and regression analysis,causality test,cycle and spectrum analysis;(3)The significant impact of temperature on grain price at different spatial or temporal scales in Europe,as well as the transmission process of"adverse climatic conditions-grain loss-grain price anomaly",has been revealed by most studies.However,the significant temporal and spatial differences in the impact of climate change on grain price fluctuations has been found by some studies.Conclusion—The research on the relationship between climate change and food prices in historical Europe has made great achievements,however the relationship among climate change,food price fluctuation and social and economic factors covering climate,agricultural production,economy,population and social subsystem needs to be further discussed.

关 键 词：历史气候变化 粮价 研究进展 欧洲 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]