信息披露监管模式变更影响分析师预测行为吗?——基于分析师预测准确度与分歧度的视角  

Does the Change of Information Disclosure Supervision Model Affect Analysts’ Forecasting Behaviors? A Perspective of Analysts’ Prediction Accuracy and Divergence

作　　者：林钟高 朱杨阳 Zhonggao Lin;Yangyang Zhu(School of Business,Anhui University of Technology,.Ma’anshan Anhui 243002,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学商学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《会计与经济研究》2021年第5期62-78,共17页Accounting and Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71572002,71272220);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2019A0069)。

摘　　要：2015年上市公司信息披露监管模式由区域监管转向分行业监管,研究变更对分析师预测是否以及如何产生影响既能检验监管模式变更的经济后果,也能检验资本市场对政策变更的反应能力。研究发现:分行业监管模式提高了分析师预测准确度,降低了分析师预测的分歧度,尤其对有行业信息披露指引的公司,这种影响更为明显。进一步研究发现:分行业监管对分析师预测的作用主要表现在对分析师预测乐观倾向的抑制,而公司信息披露质量提高与机会主义行为抑制的中介效应则为实现这种抑制作用奠定了基础。In 2015, the model of information disclosure supervision on listed companies changed from regional supervision to supervision by industry. To study whether and how this change affects analysts’ forecasts can not only test the economic consequences of the supervision policy change, but also test the ability of capital market to respond to the policy change. The results show that supervision by industry improves the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts and reduces the degree of divergence among analysts, and the impact is more significant for firms with industry information disclosure guidelines.Further research shows that the effect of supervision by industry on analysts’ forecasts is mainly manifested in the inhibition of analysts’ optimistic tendency, which relies on the intermediary effect of the improvement of the quality of corporate information disclosure and the inhibition of opportunistic behavior.

关 键 词：信息披露监管模式 分析师预测 信息披露质量 区域监管 分行业监管 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]