基于动态模拟的城市供水管网风险评估研究  

Study on Risk Assessment of Urban Water Supply Network Based on Dynamic Simulation

作　　者：戚雷强 刘思维 孙晓峰 Qi Leiqiang;Liu Siwei;Sun Xiaofeng(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China;Shanghai Fengxian Tap Water Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201400,China;Shanghai Water Planning,Design and Research Institute,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 [2]上海市自来水奉贤有限公司,上海201400 [3]上海市水务规划设计研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《市政技术》2022年第3期140-144,共5页Journal of Municipal Technology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项课题(2017ZX07207-005);上海市水务局科研项目(沪水科2021-12)。

摘　　要：供水管网是城市生命线的重要组成部分,为了更好地服务用户,同时提高对供水管网的管理水平,对已有供水管网进行风险评估必不可少。选取管道埋深、管压、管材、管龄、管径、道路荷载、水龄7个评估指标,构建供水管网风险评估模型,并对上海市MH区供水管网进行风险评估。评估结果表明,由于管道的管龄和管材对于得分的贡献率较高,因此管龄较长和管材较差的管道得分偏低,处于高风险或危险状态。将供水管道结构稳定性和水质脆弱性相结合开展供水管网风险综合评估的思路和方法,能够对供水管网中存在的风险实现动态监控、分析、评估及预警,为供水管网科学化运营提供决策依据和指导。Water supply network is an important part of urban lifeline.In order to better serve users and improve the management of water supply network,the risk assessment of existing water supply network is essential.Seven evaluation indexes of pipeline buried depth,pipe pressure,pipe material,pipe age,pipe diameter,road load and water age are selected to build the risk evaluation model of water supply network.The risk of water supply network are evaluated in MH District,Shanghai.The evaluation results show that the pipes with long pipe age and poor pipes have low scores and are in the state of high risk or risk level because of the high contribution rate of pipe age and pipes to the scores.The idea and method of comprehensive risk assessment of water supply network,which is combining the structural stability of water supply pipeline with the vulnerability of water quality,can realize dynamic monitoring,analysis,evaluation and prewarning of the existing risks in water supply network,and provide decisionmaking basis and guidance for scientific operation of water supply network.

关 键 词：供水管网 风险评估 结构稳定性 水质脆弱性 动态模拟 

分 类 号：TU991.33[建筑科学—市政工程]