Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050  

作　　者：SUN Shao DAI Tan-Long WANG Zun-Ya CHOU Jie-Ming CHAO Qing-Chen SHI Pei-Jun 

机构地区：[1]Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China [2]Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,University of Colorado,Boulder,CO,80309,USA [3]Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2021年第6期804-813,共10页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：This research was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1509003 and 2019YFC1510202);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701103);the UK-China Cooperation on Climate Change Risk Assessment.

摘　　要：Climate extremes pose severe threats to human health,economic stability and environmental sustainability,especially in densely populated areas.It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency,intensity and duration of climate extremes,and socioeconomic exposure plays a dominant role in climate impacts.In order to promote climate risk governance at regional level,the historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes are quantified in eastern China using downscaled climate simulations and population growth scenarios.The frequency of temperature extremes(tx35days)is projected to more than double by 2050 in nearly half of prefecture-level cities in eastern China,leading to an 81.8%increment of total exposure under SSP2-4.5 scenario.The increasing trend is also detectable in the frequency of precipitation extremes(r20mm)in eastern China,and the exposure increment is projected to be 22.9%by 2050,with a near equivalent contributions of both climate change and population growth.Spatially,temperature exposure mainly grows in southern Hebei,western Shandong and inland Guangdong provinces,while precipitation exposure raises principally in southeast coastal areas of China.Based on the historical baseline and projected amplification of population exposure,we identify some hotspot cities such as Guangzhou,Shanghai,Dongguan and Hangzhou that response to climate change dramatically and confront greater potential risk of climate extremes in the coming future.

关 键 词：Climate projection Extreme events Population exposure Future scenario Eastern China 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]