中国大豆生产格局变化及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Soybean Production in China

作　　者：陈雨生[1] 江一帆 张瑛[1] CHEN Yusheng;JIANG Yifan;ZHANG Ying(.Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,中国山东青岛266100

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第3期87-94,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(202104)。

摘　　要：大豆是中国重要的植物蛋白和饲料来源,研究大豆生产格局对保障粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展具有重大意义。文章运用2000—2018年我国29个省域的面板数据,运用基尼系数、产业集中度、ESDA法、空间计量模型分析了大豆生产的时空格局演变特征及影响因素。研究发现:①近20年以来,中国大豆生产总量波动上升,呈现出“东北集中、西南扩散”的空间变动趋势,大豆生产的地理聚集水平有所上升。②中国大豆生产存在较强的正向空间关联关系,关联性呈“U”型变动趋势。③要素投入、农业比较收益、城镇化对大豆生产存在正向促进作用,受灾面积对大豆生产存在负向抑制作用,邻近地区的农业机械总动力、大豆产业从业人员、农业比较收益、交通通达性、城镇化会影响到本地区大豆生产,具有较强的空间溢出效应。最后,基于上述发现提出针对性意见,以期为提高中国大豆自给能力提供理论参考。Soybean is an important source of plant protein and feed in China, so it is of great significance to study the distribution of soybean production for ensuring food security and promoting sustainable development of agriculture.Based on the panel data of 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2000 to 2018, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of soybean production in China by using Gini coefficient,industrial concentration, ESDA method and spatial econometric model. The findings are as follows:1) Over the past 20 years, the total soybean production in China has fluctuated and shows a spatial change trend of "concentration in the northeastern China and diffusion in the southwestern China", and the geographical agglomeration level of soybean production has increased. 2) There is a strong positive spatial correlation of soybean production in China,and the correlation shows the U-shaped trend. 3) Factor input,agricultural comparative income and urbanization have a positive promoting effect on soybean production, and the affected area has a negative inhibitory effect on soybean production. The total power of agricultural machinery, employees of soybean industry, agricultural comparative income,traffic accessibility and urbanization in adjacent areas will affect soybean production in this region, with strong spatial spillover effect. Finally,based on the above findings, some suggestions are put forward to provide theoretical reference for improving soybean self-sufficiency.

关 键 词：大豆产区 粮食安全 产业集中度 农业机械化 农业保险 农业比较收益 

分 类 号：F323.1[经济管理—产业经济]