认知失调:蔡英文当局维持中南美洲“邦交国”的政治分析  

Cognitive Dissonance:Political Analysis of the Tsai Ingwen Authorities in Maintaining“Diplomatic Relations”in Central and South America

作　　者：杜世雄 DU Shixiong(Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2022年第1期51-61,共11页Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA128)。

摘　　要：台湾地区“邦交国”的存在是两岸关系进一步发展的障碍,也是两岸意见冲突较为集中的议题。近年来台湾地区“邦交国”数量持续下降,但蔡英文当局并未放弃对“邦交国”的维持。通过认知失调理论分析蔡英文当局的政策和行为,发现蔡英文当局维持中南美洲“邦交国”过程呈现新旧认知差异下的纵向失调和认知与环境冲突下的横向失调。虽然蔡英文当局试图从论证政策合理性、夸大“邦交”成效、诉诸台湾地区民众、依靠美国制造“强迫服从”等方面减少认知失调,但这只起到掩盖其施政不足、助长“倚美抗陆”情绪、混淆国际社会视听的效果,并造成财政压力过大、两岸对抗加剧、“邦交国”对台认知度下降等新问题。在不改变认知与行为的情况下,蔡英文当局执政过程中的各种认知失调不具备转化为协调的可能性。The existence of Taiwan’s“countries with diplomatic relations”is not only an obstacle to the further development of cross-Strait relations,but also a topic with more concentrated cross-Strait opinion conflicts.In recent years,although the number of Taiwan’s[JP]“diplomatic countries”has continued to decline,the Tsai Ingwen authorities have not given up on maintaining“countries with diplomatic relations”.By analyzing the policies and behaviors of Tsai Ingwen administration through the cognitive dissonance theory,it is found that the process of Tsai Ingwen Administration’s maintaining“the countries with diplomatic relations”in Central and South America presents the vertical dissonance under the old and new cognitive differences and the horizontal dissonance under the conflict between cognition and environment.Although the Tsai Ingwen authorities have tried to reduce cognitive dissonance in terms of policy rationality by exaggerating the effectiveness of diplomatic relations,inciting public participation,and relying on the United States to create“forced obedience”,this can only cover up its insufficiency in governance and promote the mood of“relying on the United States to resist the mainland”,confuse the international community,and cause new problems such as financial pressure,cross-Strait confrontation,and declining awareness of Taiwan among“diplomatic countries”.Before the change of cognition and behavior,the Tsai Ingwen authorities with the cognitive dissonance is not likely to be transformed into coordination.

关 键 词：蔡英文当局 中南美洲 “邦交国” 认知失调理论 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—中外政治制度]