基于博弈论和五元引力减法集对势的区域水资源承载力动态评价方法  

Dynamic Evaluation Method of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Ganme Theory and Five-variable Gravitation Subtraction Set Pair Potential

作　　者：董涛 DONG Tao(Chongqing Eco-Environmental Engineering Evaluation Center,Chongqing 401122,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市生态环境工程评估中心,重庆401122

出　　处：《人民珠江》2022年第4期17-22,62,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：重庆市生态环境局科研项目(20C00223)。

摘　　要：为了解区域水资源承载力状态的发展趋势、识别影响区域水资源承载力的关键指标,采用博弈论确定评价指标的组合权重,引入五元引力减法集对势判断区域水资源承载力发展趋势、识别影响区域水资源承载力的关键指标,建立了基于博弈论和五元引力减法集对势的区域水资源承载力动态评价方法,将评价方法应用于广东省水资源承载力评价,结果表明:2013—2019年广东省水资源承载力承载状况良好且向好发展,2014、2017年出现波动性下降,五元引力减法集对势识别出影响广东省水资源承载力的关键指标包括单位面积水资源量、环保投资占GDP比重、城市化率、万元工业产值用水量。基于五元引力减法集对势的区域水资源承载力评价方法计算简便、成果可读性强,可为区域水资源承载力动态评价提供新的方法。To recognize the state trend of regional water resources carrying capacity and its key influence indicators,this paper adopts the game theory to determine the combined weight of the evaluation indicators.The five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential is introduced to judge the trend and identify the key indicators.The dynamic evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on the game theory and the five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential is established and applied to Guangdong Province.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Guangdong Province is generally good and developing well from 2013 to 2019.It fluctuates downward in 2014 and 2017.The five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential identifies the key indicators,including the water resources per unit area,the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP,urbanization rate,and the industrial water consumption per ten thousand yuan output.The evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential is easy to conduct and is readable,which can provide a new method for dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 动态评价 趋势分析 博弈论 五元引力减法集对势 广东省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]