近60 a西南雨季降水变化特征  

Characteristics of Rainy Season Precipitation in Southwest China in Recent 60 Years

作　　者：高焕昕 毛文书[1] 师春香[2] 粟运 张皓 GAO Huanxin;MAO Wenshu;SHI Chunxiang;SU Yun;ZHANG Hao(College of Atmospheric Sciences,CUIT,Chengdu 610225,China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2022年第1期88-95,共8页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018 YFC1506601);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41775079)。

摘　　要：为更好地分析近60 a来西南雨季降水的时空变化特征,利用1960-2017年西南地区81个气象站点的逐日降水资料,主要运用线性趋势估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、经验正交函数分解(EOF)和旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)等方法进行研究。结果表明:近60 a来西南雨季降水量总体呈下降趋势,空间分布自东南向西北大体呈减小趋势。其年代际变率为-9.865 mm/10 a,空间分布由南到北呈先减少再增加趋势。西南雨季降水量EOF分析表明:第1模态显示西南雨季降水量为全区一致的同位相变化;第2模态从西南到东北呈“负-正-负”的分布类型;第3模态显示除云南省外由东到西为“负-正-负”的分布类型;第4模态显示在西北-东南呈反位相变化。应用REOF方法对西南地区雨季降水划分为3个地区:1区为川西高原区;2区为云南区;3区主要包括四川东北部以及重庆南部及贵州西部地区(以下简称东部区)。3个区域雨季降水均呈下降趋势,1972年为雨季降水量显著突变年份且存在准5 a及准10 a的显著周期。In order to better analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of rainy season precipitation in Southwest China in the past 60 years,the daily precipitation data of 81 meteorological stations in Southwest China during1960-2017 were used.The main methods used are linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,empirical orthogonal function decomposition(EOF),and rotational empirical orthogonal function decomposition(REOF).The results show that in the past 60 years,the precipitation of the rainy season in Southwest China is generally decreasing,and the spatial distribution is generally decreasing from southeast to northwest.The interdecadal variability is-9.865 mm/10 a,and the spatial distribution decreases first and then increases from south to north.The EOF analysis of rainy season precipitation shows that:the first model shows that the precipitation of the rainy season in Southwest China is the same phase change throughout the whole region.The second model presents a "negative-positive-negative" distribution from southwest to northeast.The third model shows a "negation-positive-negative" distribution pattern from east to west except for Yunnan Province.The fourth mode shows an inverse phase change from northwest to southeast.By using the REOF method,the rainy season precipitation in Southwest China can be divided into three regions:the first region is West Sichuan Plateau;the second region is Yunnan Region;The third region mainly includes the northeastern part of Sichuan,the southern part of Chongqing and the western part of Guizhou(hereinafter referred to as the eastern part).The rainy season precipitation in the three regions showed a decreasing trend,1972 was a significant abrupt change year of the rainy season precipitation,and there was a significant period of quasi-5 a and quasi-10 a.

关 键 词：气象学 雨季降水 西南地区 REOF 小波分析 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]