尼尔基水库洪水预报方案分析及应用研究  

Analysis and application of flood forecasting plans of Nierji Reservoir

作　　者：宁月 潘爽 刘畅 NING Yue;PAN Shuang;LIU Chang(School of Geographic Science,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029;School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,大连116029 [2]大连理工大学水利工程学院,大连116024

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2022年第4期77-81,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400906)。

摘　　要：尼尔基水库作为嫩江乃至松花江流域防洪体系的重要组成部分,承担水库上下游(齐齐哈尔控制断面)防洪任务。利用水库以上流域预报来水进行防洪调度,确保水库正常运行和上下游防洪安全,是水库防洪调度运行期间的重要任务。对尼尔基水库现有的洪水预报方案进行了分析,对各方案的预报精度和预见期等进行了综合评价,并根据评价结果给出了实时防洪调度中推荐采用的预报方案;分析了采用方案在实时防洪调度中应用的可靠性等,可为尼尔基水库实时防洪调度中预报信息的可靠利用提供参考;基于预报方案峰量关系拟合的结果,提出了预报信息在防洪调度中的应用方式。Nierji Reservoir, as an important part of the flood control system in Nenjiang river and Songhua River Basin,undertakes the essential flood control tasks for the upstream and downstream of the reservoir(Qiqihar control section). It is the important task to utilize forecast incoming water from the basin above the reservoir for flood control operation to ensure the normal operation of the reservoir and the flood prevention safety in the upstream and downstream. In this paper, the existing flood forecasting plans of Nierji Reservoir is analyzed, and the prediction accuracy and predicting period of each plan are evaluated comprehensively, and the recommended forecast plan in real-time flood control dispatch based on the evaluation results is given. The reliability of the application of the scheme in the real-time flood control operation is analyzed, which can provide a reference for the reliable utilization of forecast information in the real-time flood control operation of Nierji Reservoir. Based on the fitting results of the peak-to-volume relation of the forecast scheme, the application mode of the forecast information in flood control operation is proposed.

关 键 词：尼尔基水库 洪水预报 应用研究 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]