中国降水情势变化及归因分析  

Variation and attribution analysis of precipitation in China

作　　者：祝子淳 付丛生 ZHU Zichun;FU Congsheng(Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing,Jiangsu 210008, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所流域资源与生态环境实验室,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期1-12,共12页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971044);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20191099)。

摘　　要：气候变化造成我国降水发生显著改变,其变化规律及归因亟需阐明。基于1961—2018年中国699个气象站点和2090—2100年CMIP6未来气候情景的降水数据,结合各气候带的分布,运用小波分析,对我国降水情势的变化及其影响因素进行探究。结果表明:自1961—2018年,除南温带外,各气候带的降水均呈增长趋势;降水在南温带、南亚热带和高原气候区与ENSO呈正相关,在北亚热带、中亚热带和北热带与ENSO呈负相关;雨强在亚热带和中热带地区呈增大趋势,在北热带呈减小趋势,在其他气候区基本不变。到2090s,雨强在北温带基本不变,在南亚热带和热带呈减小趋势,在高原气候区(56.06 mm)、中亚热带(28.94 mm)、北亚热带(16.94 mm)、中温带(12.96 mm)、南温带(8.94 mm)呈增加趋势。Climate change has caused significant changes in precipitation in China. The variation and attribution of precipitation need to be clarified. Based on the precipitation data of 699 meteorological stations in China during 1961-2018 and CMIP6 climate scenario during 2090-2100,the variation and attribution of precipitation in China were explored by combining with the distribution of climatic zones in China and using the wavelet analysis method. The findings are as follows. From 1961 to 2018, the precipitation in all meteorological zones except the southern temperate zone showed increasing trends. Precipitation in the south temperate zone, the south subtropical zone and the plateau climate zone was positively correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), while precipitation in the north subtropical zone, the middle subtropical zone and the north tropical zone was negatively correlated with ENSO. The rainfall intensity in the subtropical zone and middle tropical zone showed overall increasing trends, while the rainfall intensity in the north tropical zone showed overall decreasing trends.The variations of rainfall intensity were small in other climatic zones. To 2090 s, the rainfall intensity will be stable in the north temperate zone, but decrease in the south subtropical zone, tropical zone and increase in the plateau climate zone(56.06 mm), subtropical zone(28.94 mm), north subtropical zone(16.94 mm), middle temperate zone(12.96 mm) and south temperate zone(8.94 mm).

关 键 词：降水 小波分析 年代际变化 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 耦合模式比较计划 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]