提高基本养老保险参保率对财政责任的影响:从制度全覆盖走向法定人群全覆盖  

The Impact of Increasing the Pension Insurance Coverage Rate on Financial Responsibility:From Full Coverage of the System to Full Coverage of the Legal Population

作　　者：曾益[1] 姚金 毛恩荣 Zeng Yi;Yao Jin;Mao Enrong

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院大学商学院财经系

出　　处：《财政研究》2022年第2期61-76,共16页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目“老龄化背景下职工医疗保险基金可持续性”(19FRKB002);湖北省社科基金“我国老年护理服务体系的构建、需求量及成本压力研究”(2020199)。

摘　　要：2020年我国基本养老保险参保率达到91.77%,但城职保仅覆盖城镇就业人员的71.01%,那么从制度全覆盖走向《“十四五”规划纲要》提出的法定人群全覆盖对财政责任影响如何?文章运用精算模型发现:第一,当未实施扩面政策,2021—2050年基本养老保险财政责任占GDP比重的均值为2.13%;第二,若城职保和城乡居保参保率的年均增速分别为0.17%—5.8%和3%,这一均值由2.03%降至1.15%再升至1.25%;第三,当引入延迟退休年龄政策,这一均值从0.99%线性降至0.67%。可见,当城职保和城乡居保参保率分别以每年至少5.8%和3%的速度增加,并辅以延迟退休年龄政策,可于2025年及以前实现法定人群全覆盖并将财政责任降至最低;我国应加快推动基本养老保险扩面工作,适当降低城职保缴费率以吸引新业态就业人员参保。In 2020,the basic pension insurance participation rate in China has reached 91.77%,but the basic pension insurance for urban employees only covers 71.01%of urban employees.Then,what is the impact of shifting from full coverage of the system to full coverage of the legal population proposed in the 14th Five-Year Plan Outline on financial responsibility?This article uses the actuarial model to find that:First,when the basic pension insurance participation rate is not increased,the average value of fiscal responsibility in GDP from 2021 to 2050 is 2.13%;Second,if the average annual growth rate of the basic pension insurance for urban employees and the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents are 0.17%-5.8%and 3%respectively,this average value will be reduced from 2.03%to 1.15%and then increased to 1.25%;Third,when the policy of delaying the retirement age is introduced,this average value decreased linearly from 0.99%to 0.67%.To sum up,when the participation rates of the basic pension insurance for urban employees and the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents are increasing at an annual rate of 5.8%and 3%respectively at least and delaying retirement age is introduced,the full coverage of the legal population can be achieved by 2025 and before and minimize financial responsibility.We should speed up the implementation of the expansion of basic pension insurance,and appropriately reduce the contribution rate of the basic pension insurance for urban employees to attract people with flexible employment to participate in the insurance.

关 键 词：法定人群全覆盖 制度全覆盖 养老保险 财政责任 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险] F810.45