美国拜登政府对朝政策的基本框架与成效预测  

The Basic Framework and Effectiveness of U.S.Policy towards the DPRK under the Biden Administration

作　　者：吕春燕 LYU Chunyan

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军战略支援部队信息工程大学

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2022年第2期83-96,149,150,共16页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：美国拜登政府执政后重新评估对朝政策,既源于国内政权交替的政治惯性,也是在中美关系日益复杂背景下重启美朝对话的紧迫需求。拜登政府将采取务实与渐进的对朝外交路线,更注重与韩日等盟国联手应对朝鲜,同时仍对朝采取外交与威慑并用的手段,且借用人权等意识形态问题攻击朝鲜。拜登政府对朝政策的战略目标是多元且复杂的,包含把控美朝关系及地区安全、强化美韩同盟及美韩日合作、实现“朝鲜半岛无核化”以及着眼于大国战略竞争等在内。拜登政府对朝政策尚未得到朝鲜方面的积极响应,美韩日恐难以形成统一的对朝政策框架。展望未来,朝鲜核导问题仍难以解决且更趋复杂,地区多边安全合作机制的构建必将受阻。The Biden administration’s re-evaluation of its DPRK policy after it took office stems not only from the political inertia of domestic regime change,but also from the urgent need to restart U.S.-DPRK dialogue against the increasingly complex background of China-U.S.relations.The Biden administration will adopt a pragmatic and gradual diplomatic line toward the DPRK,focusing more on joint efforts with allies such as South Korea and Japan to deal with the DPRK,while still adopting a combination of diplomacy and deterrence and using ideological issues such as human rights to attack the DPRK.The strategic goals of the Biden administration’s north Korea policy are diverse and complex,including controlling the U.S.-North Korea relations and regional security,strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance and U.S.-South Korea-Japan cooperation,realizing the“denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula”and focusing on the strategic competition of great powers.Looking ahead,the DPRK nuclear and missile issues will remain difficult to solve and become more complicated and the establishment of a regional multilateral security cooperation mechanism will be frustrated.

关 键 词：拜登政府 对朝政策 美朝关系 美韩同盟 朝鲜核导问题 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D831.25[政治法律—外交学]