贝叶斯估计在技术资质评审中应用及其改进浅析  

Application of Bayesian Estimation in Technical Qualification Evaluation and the Improvement

作　　者：吴国华 李永华[2] 龙跃 WU Guohua;LI Yonghua;LONG Yue(Air China,Beijing 101312,China;Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国国际航空股份有限公司,北京101312 [2]中国民航大学,天津300300

出　　处：《民航学报》2022年第2期93-97,共5页Journal of Civil Aviation

摘　　要：为了保证技术资质评审公平、公正和规范,本文提出用二项分布模型以及贝叶斯估计来设计一种评审专家投票流程和规则,既保证评审的质量,又满足用人的需要,用国航信息部门技术资质评审的真实案例来验证其方法的应用效果,并提出改进措施。In order to ensure the fairness, impartiality and standardization of technical qualification evaluation,this paper proposes designing a voting process and voting rules of evaluation experts with binomial distribution model and Bayesian estimation, which not only ensures the quality of evaluation, but also meets the needs of employers. The application effect of the method is verified by the real case of technical qualification evaluation of Air China Information Department, and the improvement measures are put forward.

关 键 词：二项分布模型 贝叶斯估计 技术资质评审 无记名投票 国航 

分 类 号：O211.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]