山东地区中小地震概率预测实践  

Probabilistic prediction practice for middle and small earthquakes in Shandong area

作　　者：郑建常[1] 冀东普[1] 李冬梅[1] 李霞[1] 戴宗辉 ZHENG Jianchang;JI Dongpu;LI Dongmei;LI Xia;DAI Zonghui(Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250102,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,济南250102

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2022年第1期1-7,共7页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：中国地震科学实验场地震可预测性国际合作项目(项目编号:2018YFE0109700);中国局震情跟踪定向任务(项目编号:2021020501)。

摘　　要：基于时间相依的地震复发间隔混合概率模型,开展山东地区中、短期尺度上的中小地震的概率预测实践,1年的检验结果显示,3、4级中小地震基本发生在此前给出的地震危险性高概率区。研究认为,该方法在日常地震会商中应用效果较好,并有望为破坏性地震的概率预测提供参考。Based on mixed probabilistic model of time-dependent seismic recurrence intervals,we put it into practice for middle and small earthquakes in Shandong area on medium and short-term time scales.After one-year test,the results show that,most of events with magnitude of 3 or 4 occurred on earthquake hazard area with high probability,which were given earlier.It is believed that this method works well in routine earthquake consultation,and is expected to provide a reference for probabilistic prediction of destructive earthquakes.

关 键 词：统计预测 混合概率模型 周月会商 中等地震 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]