基于集中度与圆形分布法的晋东南某三级甲等医院手足口病季节特征分析  

Seasonal Characteristics of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in a Tertiary Hospital in Southeast Shanxi Province Based on Concentration Degree and Circular Distribution Method

作　　者：边香 郭奇 于娟 郭柯宇 侯晓芳 高永桂[5] 杨菁 饶华祥 BIAN Xiang;GUO Qi;YU Juan(Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Changzhi Medical College)

机构地区：[1]长治医学院公共卫生与预防医学系,046000 [2]长治医学院第一临床学院 [3]长治医学院基础医学部微生物学教研室 [4]长治医学院口腔医学系 [5]长治医学院附属和平医院预防保健科 [6]长治医学院麻醉学系

出　　处：《长治医学院学报》2022年第1期15-20,共6页Journal of Changzhi Medical College

基　　金：山西省大学生创新创业训练项目(2020391);长治医学院博士启动基金(BS201921,BS201912)。

摘　　要：目的:分析晋东南地区某三级甲等医院手足口病就诊病例的季节分布规律,为医疗资源合理分配提供参考依据。方法:收集2009—2019年晋东南某三级甲等医院的手足口病就诊病例数,利用集中度法计算集中度值(M),评价就诊病例的季节性强弱;圆形分布法计算平均角()和角度标准差(s),推算就诊高峰时段,二者结合综合评价该院手足口病就诊病例的季节分布特征。结果:集中度分析显示该院手足口病就诊时间具有较强的季节性特点(M=0.63),圆形分布法结果提示就诊高峰期在5月中旬至9月初之间(=187.31°,s=55.22°,Z=6039.740,高峰期为5月13日至9月3日)。经Watson-Williams检验,11年间的平均角()差异具有统计学意义(F=301.740,P<0.001),表明各年份就诊高峰期出现的时间不全相同。结论:该院手足口病患者就诊时间具有明显的季节分布特征,应在每年流行高峰来临前做好各项防治准备工作,提高医疗救治能力,避免重症及死亡病例的出现。Objective:To analyze the seasonal distribution of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)cases in a tertiary hospital in southeast Shanxi Province,which would provide the reference for rational allocation of medical resources.Methods:The number of HFMD cases in a tertiary hospital in southeast Shanxi Province was collected monthly from 2009 to 2019.The concentration value(M)was calculated using the concentration method to evaluate the seasonal strength of the patients.The mean Angle()and Angle standard deviation(s)were calculated using the circular distribution method to evaluate the peak medical attendance.These two methods were in combination to evaluate the seasonal distribution characteristics of HFMD cases in the hospital comprehensively.Results:Concentration analysis showed a strong seasonal characteristic(M=0.63),and the circular distribution method suggested that the peak period was from mid-May to early September(=187.31°,S=55.22°,Z=6039.740,the peak period was from May 13 to September 3).The Watson-Williams test showed the difference of average Angle()during 11 years was statistically significant(F=301.740,P<0.001),indicating that the peak times of medical attendance are not the same each year.Conclusion:The medical attendance of HFMD cases in this hospital has obvious seasonal distribution characteristics.Hence,it is necessary to make preparations for prevention and treatment before the annual epidemic peak,improve the medical treatment ability,and avoid the occurrence of severe cases and death cases.

关 键 词：手足口病 就诊日期 圆形分布法 集中度 季节特征 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学]