资本项目开放对宏观金融风险的影响——基于跨国面板数据的检验  

Impact of Capital Account Opening on Macro-financial Risks:An Empirical Study Based on Transnational Panel Data

作　　者：沙文兵[1] 常雨晴 SHA Wenbing;CHANG Yuqing(School of International Economics and Trade, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期35-44,66,共11页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AJL012);安徽财经大学研究生校级课题(ACYC2019022)。

摘　　要：国际经验表明,资本项目开放在促进跨境资本流动的同时,也引起了资本流动的过度波动并可能引致宏观金融风险的上升。文章基于资本项目开放对宏观金融风险影响的传导机制分析,选取2005-2019年53个国家和地区数据,构建动态面板模型实证检验了资本项目开放对宏观金融风险的影响。结果表明,资本项目开放会显著增加宏观金融风险;但金融发展水平的提升会降低资本项目开放对宏观金融稳定的负面影响;相对于长期资本流动而言,短期资本流动对宏观金融稳定的负面影响更大。因此,应该把握好资本项目开放的程度与速度,建立符合实情的、与资本项目开放相关的风险管理机制。International experience shows that while capital account opening promotes cross-border capital flows,it also causes excessive fluctuations in capital flows and may lead to increased macro-financial risks.According to the transmission mechanism analysis,this paper examined the influence of capital account opening on macro-financial risks,using a dynamic panel data model of 53 countries and regions from 2005 to 2019.It is found that capital account opening will significantly increase the macro-financial risks,but the increment of financial development will reduce the negative influence of capital account opening on macro-financial risks.Comparing to long-term capital flow,short-term capital flow has a greater influence on the macro-financial risks.Therefore,it is necessary to control the degree and speed of capital account opening and establish a risk management mechanism suitable for the actual condition and related to capital account opening.

关 键 词：资本项目开放 宏观金融风险 动态面板模型 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]