新疆地区极端降水时空变化特征及对气温变化的响应  

Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and its response to temperature change in Xinjiang,China

作　　者：王卫平 刘永强[1,2] 赵求东 秦艳[1,2] 孟湘尧 张梦肖 晋子振 Wang Weiping;Liu Yongqiang;Zhao Qiudong;Qin Yan;Meng Xiangyao;Zhang Mengxiao;Jin Zizhen(College of Geographical Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environmental and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学新疆绿洲生态自治区重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2022年第4期133-142,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510505)。

摘　　要：全球气候变暖背景下极端事件频发,对地处干旱、半干旱地区的新疆影响尤为明显,导致冻害、旱灾、雪灾、暴雨洪水和融雪洪水风险增大。该研究基于1961—2020年新疆75个观测气象台站资料,使用湿球温度法对降雨事件和降雪事件进行分离,其总体精度达到95%。利用百分位法定义极端降水(雨、雪),研究该区域极端降水量与频次变化的总体特征和南北疆空间变化差异,分析极端降雨、极端降雪对气温变化的响应机制。结果表明:1961—2020年,新疆地区年均降水(雨、雪)和年均极端降水(雨、雪)量与频次均呈增加趋势;北疆地区降雨、极端降雨、降雪和极端降雪的量与频次的增幅均要大于南疆地区(降雨频次除外);极端降水(雨、雪)对降水(雨、雪)的贡献率平均值均大于26%,且均呈增加趋势;南北疆各台站极端降雨和极端降雪对气温变化的响应均小于C-C(克拉伯龙-克劳修斯,Clausius-Clapeyron)方程预期,即“次C-C率”;当超过一定温度,温度会对极端降雨强度和极端降雪强度起抑制作用。该研究将有助于科学认识新疆地区极端降水事件变化特征,对区域水文水资源合理调控具有重要意义。Extreme events happen frequently in the context of global warming,particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions,such as Xinjiang.The global surface temperature has increased to allow more water vapor entering the atmosphere,which intensifying the global water cycle.Meanwhile,extreme precipitation events can be more frequent and intense both regionally and globally in the future.Global warming has led to variation in the precipitation types,resulting in more precipitation in the form of rainfall in some regions.In previous studies,extreme precipitation has been often studied as a whole,whether the extreme rainfall or snowfall has been discussed separately in some cases.But,only a few studies have been reported on the differences between extreme rainfall and extreme snowfall.The Clausius-Clapeyron equation hypothesis(hereafter referred to as the C-C equation)can be considered as the physical mechanism under extreme precipitation(rain and snow)events.At the same time,the atmospheric water holding capacity can be assumed to increase by approximately 7%with the increase of every 1℃ in temperature under a constant relative humidity.However,there are some differences in some regions,such as most parts of Europe,North America,and the Tibetan Plateau,where the increase of extreme precipitation intensity can be much less than 7%with the increase of every 1℃ in temperature,(so-called sub-C-C rate).Even some regions experience extreme precipitation intensities with the increase of temperature up to 14%(the“super-C-C”rate),such as Hong Kong and the De Beers region of the Netherlands.And even more,there is a negative relationship between extreme precipitation intensity and temperature in tropical regions.Therefore,it is necessary to discuss the relationship among extreme rainfall,extreme snowfall intensity,and temperature at various stations.In this study,the rainfall and snowfall events were separated from the wet-bulb temperature method using the data from 75 observing meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020,which

关 键 词：降水 降雨 降雪 极端降雨 极端降雪 Clausius-Clapeyron方程 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.63