Agent-based models reveal limits of mark-release-recapture estimates for the rare butterfly, Bhutanitis thaidina (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae)  

作　　者：Zhengyang Wang Yuanheng Li Anuj Jain Naomi E.Pierce 

机构地区：[1]Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and Museum of Comparative Zoology,Harvard University,Cambridge,MA 02138 USA

出　　处：《Insect Science》2022年第2期550-566,共17页昆虫科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by a graduate fellowship from Harvard University Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology,as well as a Joan Mosenthal DeWind Award in Lepidoptera conservation from the Xerces Society(2017)for studying the spatial ecology of butterflies in Yanzigou valley;ZW and AJ were supported by a Rufford Small Grant(2016)to work on the conservation of B.thaidina;Aspects of the modeling approach used in this research were supported by a grant from the Harvard Global Institute(HG1)to YL,ZW and NEP.

摘　　要：Insect diversity and abundance are in drastic decline worldwide,but quantifying insect populations to better conserve them is a difficult task.Mark-release-recapture(MRR)is widely used as an ecological indicator for insect populations,but the accuracy of MRR estimates can vary with factors such as spatial scale,sampling effort and models of inference.We conducted a 3-year MRR study of B.thaidina in Yanzigou valley,Mt.Gongga but failed to obtain sufficient data for a robust population estimate.This prompted us to integrate B.thaidina life history information to parameterize agent-based models and evaluate the conditions under which successful MRR studies could be conducted.We evaluated:(1)the performance of MRR models under different landscape types,and(2)the influence of experimental design on the accuracy and variance of MRR-based estimates.Our simulations revealed systematic underestimates of true population parameters by MRR models when sampling effort was insufficient.In a total of 2772 simulations,subjective decisions in sampling protocol(e.g.,frequency,number of sampling locations,use of spatially explicit models,type of estimands)accounted for nearly half of the variation in estimates.We conclude that MRR-based estimates could be improved with the addition of more field-specific parameters.

关 键 词：agent-based simulation Aristolochia moupinensis habitat hostplant landscape Mt.Gongga program MARK spatially explicit capture-recapture(SECR) 

分 类 号：Q96[生物学—昆虫学]