家庭收入流动性分解测度、税收负担及制度改革效应分析——基于家庭微观追踪调查数据的实证研究  

The Effect Analysis on the Measurement of Household Income Mobility,Tax Burden and Institutional Reform:An Empirical Study Based on Household Micro Tracking Survey Data

作　　者：崔景华[1] 谢远涛[2] Cui Jinghua;Xie Yuantao(School of Government Management,University of International Business&Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of Insurance and Economics,University of International Busi-ness&Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学政府管理学院,100029 [2]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,100029

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2022年第2期68-86,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金年度项目“相对贫困视角下财政支出的脱贫内生动力效应及长效机制研究”(20BJY220);教育部人文社科基金一般项目“扶贫支出的脱贫内生动力机制及动态福利效应研究”(18YJA790016);2021年中央高校教育教学改革专项“优质课程建设——关税制度”项目资助。

摘　　要：收入流动性是动态反映收入分配格局的重要指标,主要被用来考察社会个体收入分布的机会均等程度及时间路径。本文探索税收对家庭收入流动性的作用机理和制度改革效应,从福利主义视角将总收入流动性分解为交换流动性和结构流动性两个指标,利用有限信息极大似然估计两阶段法,结合中国家庭微观追踪调查数据,检验了个税负担、税改带来的减税规模、地区和收入阶层差异对三类收入流动性的作用机理。研究发现,总流动性、交换流动性和结构流动性三者对家庭个税负担的反应程度依次降低;个税制度改革前后的减税规模对交换流动性的影响大于结构流动性,并且呈现出显著的地区和收入阶层之间的异质性,即东部地区和高收入阶层的总收入流动性受到减税规模的正向冲击最大,而西部地区和低收入阶层的减税规模对总收入流动性的影响较小或者甚微。此外,个税免征额比重与高收入家庭、低收入家庭的收入流动性之间存在着显著的非线性关系,工资额既定的前提下,提高免征额有利于增强高收入家庭的收入流动性,而低收入家庭却与之相反;每个家庭挣工资人数的差异也会导致个税负担对收入流动性产生截然不同的作用。有鉴于此,结合个体、家庭、地区和收入阶层的特征设置富有弹性的个人所得税制度对于缩小贫富差距、防止收入阶层固化、维护社会秩序具有重要意义。Income mobility is an important dynamic parameter of income distribution pattern. This paper considered opportunity equality and time path of individual income distribution. It explored effect mechanisms and effect of institutional reform of tax on income mobility of household. It decomposed total income mobility into two indexes of exchange and structure in a view of Welfarism. It also examined internal effect mechanisms of income mobility among personal income tax burden,size of tax cuts,difference of the regional income strata,with the aid of a two-stage method of Limited Information Maximum Likelihood and CFPS. Research findings:household income tax burden on total income mobility,exchange income mobility and structure income mobility is gradually lower according to response ability. Household income tax burden impacted on exchange mobility more than structure mobility,and with significant heterogeneity of income gap and region. The total income mobility of eastern regions and high income levels were initially hard positive shock by tax cuts size. The total income mobility of western regions and low income levels wereinitially less positive shock by tax cuts size. There is an obvious nonlinear relation between proportion of exemption entitlement and income mobility of high income household and low income household. In terms of established wages,income mobility of high income household would be more deeply influenced by the improving exemption entitlement,while it was opposite for low income household. Because of the difference of family members who were working,personal income burden had a different effect on income mobility. In view of this,we should set up income tax system of flexible and connected moving that had important significance for adjusting the income gap,preventing income class solidification and creating a stable society by features of individuals,household,regions and income class.

关 键 词：收入流动性 个人所得税 税收负担 减税效应 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124.7