基于LEAP模型的既有城镇住区清洁能源替代及二氧化碳排放研究  

Research on clean energy substitution and CO_(2) dioxide emission in existing urban residential areas based on LEAP model

作　　者：陈纬 李琼 CHEN Wei;LI Qiong(School of Safety Engineering,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao,065201,China)

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院安全工程学院,北京东燕郊065201

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2021年第6期60-64,82,共6页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC0704800)。

摘　　要：现有城镇居住区的清洁能源替代是我国城镇更新和高质量发展的体现,也是实现国家碳排放目标要求。建筑减排降耗已经成为影响能源安全、优化能源结构、提高能源效率、实施资源与可持续发展战略的关键因素。为了研究城镇住区清洁能源替代策略以及城镇住区二氧化碳排放达峰情况,本文以山东省为例研究既有城镇住区清洁能源替代策略,首先分析山东省优势清洁能源;然后建立山东省LEAP模型预测山东省建筑能耗趋势;重点结合我国碳达峰目标研究不同情景下山东省城镇住区碳达峰情况。根据LEAP预测得到城镇住区居民建筑能耗中电力将逐渐占据更大的比例,以山东省某既有居民区清洁能源改造为例,当清洁发电增长率i取2%时,2025年城镇居民能源消费碳排放达到峰值。结果表明,提高清洁发电比例是实现现有城镇居住区能源利用碳排放目标的必要途径。The clean energy substitution of existing urban residential areas are not only the embodiment of China’s urban renewal and high-quality development,but also the requirement to achieve the national carbon emission target.Building emission reduction and consumption reduction has become a key factor affecting energy security,optimizing energy structure,improving energy efficiency and implementing resource and sustainable development strategy.In order to study the strategy of clean energy substitution and the peak of CO_(2) dioxide emission in urban settlements,taking Shandong Province as an example,this paper studies the alternative strategy of existing urban settlements.Firstly,it analyzes the advantageous clean energy in Shandong Province.Then the leap model of Shandong Province is established to predict the trend of building energy consumption in Shandong Province.Finally,combined with Chinay’s carbon peak goal,this paper studies the carbon peak of urban residential areas in Shandong Province under different scenarios.According to leap prediction,electricity will gradually account for a larger proportion in the building energy consumption of urban residential areas.Taking the clean energy transformation of an existing residential area in Shandong Province as an example,when the growth rate of clean power generation(i) is 2%,the carbon emission of energy consumption of urban residents will reach the peak in 2025.The results show that increasing the proportion of clean power generation is a necessary way to achieve the carbon emission target of energy utilization in existing urban residential areas.

关 键 词：能源安全 LEAP模型 清洁能源 既有城镇住区 碳排放 

分 类 号：TU995[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]