美国量化宽松对中国经济的溢出效应  

The Spillover Effect of U.S. Quantitative Easing on the Chinese Economy

作　　者：焦子铉 JIAO Zi-xuan(Zijin College,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学紫金学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《江苏商论》2022年第4期54-59,共6页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：在经济全球化,美元本位的国际货币体系背景下,美国货币政策对他国的溢出效应一直是学术界关注的焦点。2008年美国的四轮QE,我国和全球其他国家一样被动应对。但面对2019年新一轮QE我国因为自身的政策连续性、社会生产与经济发展在全球率先复苏,采取了与美国“背离”的货币政策,充分显示出我国货币政策的自主性。本文采用贝叶斯VAR模型,对比研究美国2008年金融危机开始的四轮量化与2019年因新冠疫情开始的新一轮量化宽松对中国的溢出效应。研究发现,在不同的经济发展时期,采用不同货币政策的条件下,我国经济受到美国量化宽松产生的溢出效应的影响是不同的。In the context of economic globalization and the dollar-based international monetary system,the spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy on other countries has always been the focus of academic attention.In the four rounds of QE in the United States in 2008,my country,like other countries in the world,responded passively.However,in the face of the new round of QE in 2019,because of its own policy continuity,social production and economic development,China took the lead in recovering in the world,and adopted a monetary policy that“deviates”from the United States,which fully demonstrates the autonomy of my country's monetary policy.This paper uses the Bayesian VAR model to compare and study the spillover effects on China of the four rounds of quantitative easing that began in the United States in 2008 and the new round of quantitative easing that began in 2019 due to the new crown epidemic.The study found that in different periods of economic development,under the conditions of different monetary policies,my country's economy was affected differently by the spillover effects of quantitative easing in the United States.

关 键 词：量化宽松 溢出效应 贝叶斯VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]