粮食期货市场对粮食现货市场价格的影响——以玉米为例  

The Impact of Grain Futures Market on the Price of Grain Spot Market——Evidence from Corn

作　　者：童馨乐[1] 佴逸潇 谢戎蓉 TONG Xinle;NAI Yixiao;XIE Rongrong

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院,南京210023 [2]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,南京210023

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2022年第3期61-72,共12页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(编号:2020SJZDA048)。

摘　　要：本文以蛛网模型为基础,从逻辑上考察粮食期货市场对粮食现货市场价格的影响机理,在此基础上以玉米为例,结合我国玉米“市场化收购+生产者补贴”政策实施前后市场表现进行相应的经验分析。研究结果表明,(1)粮食期货市场能够增加粮食现货市场需求价格弹性和降低供给价格弹性,当粮食期货市场足够发达时,粮食现货市场需求价格弹性大于供给价格弹性,粮食现货市场由“发散型蛛网”转化为“收敛型蛛网”,现货市场价格波动下降并趋于均衡;(2)我国玉米临时收储政策实施期间,玉米期货市场不活跃,难以有效发挥价格引领作用,而玉米“市场化收购+生产者补贴”政策实施后,玉米期货市场活跃度提高,在供给和需求价格弹性共同影响下,玉米现货价格波动幅度下降,玉米期货市场能够稳定现货价格。基于上述研究结果,今后应进一步完善我国粮食现货市场交易体系、丰富粮食期货市场交易品种、建立健全粮食期货市场交易和监管制度等。Based on the cobweb model, this paper logically investigates the mechanism of the impact of the grain futures market on the price of the grain spot market.On this basis, taking corn as an example, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the market performance before and after the implementation of the “market-oriented purchase + producer subsidies” policy for corn in China.The results show that the grain futures market can increase the demand price elasticity and reduce the supply price elasticity of the grain spot market.When the grain futures market is sufficiently developed, the demand price elasticity of the grain spot market is greater than the supply price elasticity, so that the grain spot market changes from divergent cobweb to convergent cobweb, Then, the price fluctuation of the spot market will decrease and tend to equilibrium.During the implementation of China’s temporary corn purchase and storage policy, the corn futures market is not active.And it is difficult to effectively play the role of price leading.After the implementation of the policy of “market-oriented purchase + producer subsidies”,the activity of the corn futures market increased.Under the joint influence of supply and demand price elasticity, the fluctuation range of corn spot prices decreases.Thus, the corn futures market can stabilize the spot price.Based on the above research results, it is necessary to further improve the grain spot market trading system, enrich the grain futures market trading varieties, establish and improve the grain futures market trading and supervision system.

关 键 词：粮食期货市场 粮食现货市场价格 粮食供需价格弹性 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F724.5