新疆生产建设兵团2008―2020年肺结核流行特征分析及发病预测  

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and incidence prediction of tuberculosis in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps from 2008 to 2020

作　　者：凌曦 张泽文[1] 赵鹏山 刘新文[3] 马晓玲[3] 李凡卡[3] 戴江红[1] LING Xi;ZHANG Ze-wen;ZHAO Peng-shan;LIU Xin-wen;MA Xiao-ling;LI Fan-ka;DAI Jiang-hong(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China;Department of Preventive Medicine,School of Medicine,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,China;Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]石河子大学医学院预防医学系,石河子832003 [3]新疆生产建设兵团疾病预防控制中心,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第4期449-454,472,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0907203);新疆维吾尔自治区研究生创新项目(XJ2021G224)。

摘　　要：目的探讨新疆生产建设兵团肺结核的流行特征,建立自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型并预测未来的发病趋势,为肺结核防控工作提供支持。方法收集2008年1月1日―2020年12月31日传染病疫情信息网络直报系统中的肺结核数据,对时间、地区、人群分布特征采用传统描述性流行病学方法进行分析。使用R 4.0.3软件基于2008年1月―2020年6月的数据建立模型,通过2020年7―12月的数据验证模型性能。使用模型预测未来两年的发病趋势。结果2008―2020年新疆生产建设兵团肺结核发病总体呈下降趋势,年均报告发病率为70.68/10万,3月是发病高峰。第三师、第八师、第十三师年均发病率较高。男女发病数比为1.77∶1,65~<75岁占比最大,患者职业主要为离退人员、农民。ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)为最优模型,2020年7―12月的实际发病数均落在模型模拟数据的95%CI内。使用该模型预测2021年和2022年的肺结核报告发病例数分别为1301、1219例。结论针对新疆生产建设兵团肺结核的发病特点,重点人群、重点地区应加强防控。ARIMA模型的预测能力较好,适合短期预测以及动态分析,可供相关部门在制定防控策略时参考。Objective The study aims to explore the epidemic characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,and establishing an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the future trend of morbidity,to provide support for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control.Methods We collected pulmonary tuberculosis data from the infectious disease epidemic information network direct reporting system from January 1,2008 to December 31,2020,and analyzed the time,region,and population distribution characteristics using traditional descriptive epidemiological methods.R 4.0.3 was performed to build a model based on the data from January 2008 to June 2020,and also the validated model with the data from July to December 2020.The established model was used to predict the incidence trend in the next two years.Results From 2008 to 2020,the incidence of tuberculosis in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps showed an overall downward trend,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 70.68 per 100000,with the peak incidence in March.The third,eighth,and thirteenth divisions have higher average annual morbidity rates.The ratio of male to female cases was 1.77∶1,with the largest proportion between 65 and 75 years old.The patients were mainly retired personnel and farmers.The ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)was the optimal model,and the actual number of cases from July to December 2020 all fall within the 95%confidence interval of the model simulation data.Using the ARIMA model,the number of reported cases of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2021 and 2022 will be 1301 and 1219.Conclusion In view of the characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,key populations and key areas should strengthen prevention and control.The forecasting ablity of the ARIMA is good,which is suitable for short-term forecasting and dynamic analysis,therefore,it can provide reference for the disease prevention and control.

关 键 词：肺结核 流行特征 自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]