The Central Asian Regional Security Complex Revisited:Understanding the Implications of the US Retreat From Afghanistan  

作　　者：Samuel Elzinga 

机构地区：[1]Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs,Washington,United States

出　　处：《International Relations and Diplomacy》2021年第11期447-479,共33页国际关系与外交（英文版）

摘　　要：On February 29,2020,President Donald Trump announced the United States signed a peace agreement with the Taliban,signifying the United States‟intention of leaving Afghanistan in the near future.Though the global pandemic has altered US withdrawal plans,the question still remains:What will become of the Central Asian regional security complex following America‟s exit?Buffered by the presence of the United States since 2001,the Central Asian republics now once again find themselves at a crossroads to either rely on individual defense services or to develop increased military cooperation with interested states.Recognizing Central Asia‟s history of collaboration among its regional and near-regional countries,I argue that the Central Asian Republics of Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan will seek to develop stronger security ties with neighboring regional security complexes(RSCs),namely the South Asian,Russian,and Chinese RSCs.With decreased American influence,each of the states in these RSCs is rushing to fill the void of influence in order to capitalize on Central Asia‟s geostrategic position in Eurasia as well as secure itself from the threat of non-state actors still prevalent in the region.I further argue that the states in the Central Asian RSC additionally seek these same benefits and security,but receive them to a much lesser extent than their more powerful regional neighbors.Understanding how the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact Central Asian RSC relations can provide insight into how great power vacuums are filled both by great powers and regional powers alike.

关 键 词：Central Asia REGIONALISM AFGHANISTAN CONSTRUCTIVISM security Regional Security Theory(RSCT) TERRORISM CONFLICT 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]