城市居民生活需水函数模型的构建与应用  

Construction and application of function model for urban residents′water demand

作　　者：秦长海[1,2] 曲军霖 孙华月 李海红 姜珊[1] QIN Changhai;QU Junlin;SUN Huayue;LI Haihong;JIANG Shan(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第2期209-217,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0408105);国家自然科学基金项目(52025093,71573274)。

摘　　要：通过定性分析与定量计算相结合的方式探寻生活用水强相关因素,充分考量区域气候条件及经济发展水平差异,构建全国及七大地理分区的城市居民家庭生活需水函数,各区域需水函数模型均通过了显著性检验,拟合值与实际值误差在10%以内的城市占61.5%。分区城市居民生活需水函数可客观反映经济发展阶段特性和气候背景下的用水差异,提升了模型的应用性和可操作性,为分区阶梯定额的确定提供技术支撑。应用模型对省会及重要城市的居民生活用水定额和水价进行分析预测,结果表明:在同等居民收入和水价增幅下,北方城市居民生活用水定额降幅远低于南方城市,南方城市价格增长对居民生活用水定额的抑制作用更为明显;随着收入的增长,需要适度提升水价才能使规划水平年生活用水定额维持现状水平。In the context of the prominent contradiction between supply and demand in China and the rapid growth of urban domestic water,reasonable control of the excessive growth of urban domestic water is the key to regulating economic and social water use and promoting sustainable social development.The tiered water pricing system can alleviate the trend of water stress through price leverage.However,the current domestic water quota standards for urban residents are generally too high,which can not effectively guide the implementation of the tiered water pricing system.The current water quota is determined concerning the relevant national and local quota standards.Although it has wide applicability,it is not typical and representative.How to determine a reasonable quota standard based on fully complying with regional differences is worthy of in-depth consideration.Through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation,the strong correlation factors are explored that affect the domestic water quota.Pearson correlation analysis can explore the correlation between indicators from cross-sectional data.In addition,qualitative analysis can help for in-depth study of the law of urban domestic water use.Based on the full consideration of regional climatic conditions and economic development level,the model selected factors such as water price,per capita disposable income,and temperature as explanatory variables for urban household water quotas.The 2017 data of 293 prefecture-level cities across the country are used as a sample to construct a water demand function model.To better seek regional common features,the seven geographical regions of China were modeled separately.During data processing,the obvious centrifugal data and marginal data are excluded,and the number of valid samples accounts for about 98%of the total data volume.Then,a significant test on the constructed water demand function model is conducted to predict a reasonable water quota.The results show that the fit of the national and regional m

关 键 词：阶梯水价 生活用水 生活节水 定额 弹性系数 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]