SCS-CN模型在济南市南部山区径流估算中的优化应用  

Optimal application of SCS-CN model in runoff estimation in the southern mountainous area of Jinan

作　　者：赵登良 陈振江 刘建华 孟凡荣[4] 徐征和 桑国庆 边振 ZHAO Dengliang;CHEN Zhenjiang;LIU Jianhua;MENG Fanrong;XU Zhenghe;SANG Guoqing;BIAN Zhen(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,China;Qingdao Water Conservancy Survey and Design Institute Company Limited,Jinan 250013,China;Hydrographic Bureau in Jinan,Jinan 250100,China;Water Resources Department of Shandong Province,Jinan 250013,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,济南250022 [2]青岛市水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,济南250013 [3]山东济南市水文局,济南250100 [4]山东省水利厅,济南250013

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第2期308-316,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：山东省水土保持学会重点领域创新项目(sdsbxh-2019-01,sdsbxh-2018-04)。

摘　　要：济南市南部山区崮山流域地处我国北方土石山地丘陵区,以水力侵蚀为主的土壤侵蚀现象严重且生态环境脆弱,径流预测是水土保持监测和预报的重要基础,精度较高的的径流计算模型可以为济南市南部山区更好地开展水土保持工作提供技术支撑与数据基础。根据径流曲线模型(SCS-CN)原理和崮山流域内5个雨量站、1个水文站近10年的实测降雨、径流资料,借助ArcGIS平台利用优度拟合统计分析法及Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数验证法对模型参数初损率(λ)和径流曲线数(CN)进行了优化检验,结果表明:参数优化后的模型精确度较高(实测值与计算值分析结果为回归直线斜率K=0.9058、确定系数R^(2)=0.8127、纳什效率系数E_(NS)=0.7969)可以更好地适用于崮山流域径流测算;对2019年崮山流域29次侵蚀性降雨进行降雨产流估算,并累加计算得流域年径流量为0.53亿m^(3),年径流深处于34.15~371.52 mm,年均径流深为134.52 mm,汛期降雨产生的径流量占年径流量的90.27%。Gushan watershed in the southern mountainous area of Jinan is located in the northern China.Soil erosion is a serious problem,dominated by hydraulic erosion and the ecological environment is fragile.Runoff carrying sediment are intuitive manifestations of soil erosion.The Gushan watershed is a key area for dynamic monitoring of water and soil erosion at the provincial level in Jinan.Complete rainfall and runoff datasets and the parameter optimization of the rainfall-runoff estimation model(runoff curve model(SCS-CN))can improve the applicability of the model in the watershed and provide technical support and basis for the monitoring and forecasting of soil and water conservation in the region.Based on multi-source remote sensing technology and ArcGIS 10.7 platform,and according to the principle of the SCS-CN model,comprehensive consideration is given to the soil types in the watershed,the degree of early soil moisture,land use types,and topographic features.Measured rainfall and runoff data of five rainfall stations and one hydrological station in the basin for the past 10 years is selected,and goodness-fitting statistical analysis method and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient verification method are used to determine the initial loss rate(λ)and the number of runoff curves of the model parameters(CN)to carry out optimization test.The rainfall-runoff estimation results of the standard SCS-CN model,Woodward model,and optimized SCS-CN model in the watershed are used to improve the estimation accuracy of rainfall-runoff of the SCS-CN model in the Gushan watershed.(1)When the value of the model parameterλis less than 0.06,the runoff simulation result fits well with the measured value.After parameter optimization,λis selected as 0.05.(2)The runoff curve model is greatly affected by topographical changes in the limestone mountain area.After using CN value slope conversion model,the accuracy of the model is further improved.(3)The optimized model has high accuracy with K=0.9058,R^(2)=0.8127,E_(NS)=0.7969 which can

关 键 词：径流曲线模型 模型优化检验 径流估算 多源遥感 济南市南部山区 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]